Analysis And Forecast Of Residents’ Consumption Carbon Emissions In Xi’an

In recent years,natural disasters such as melting of glaciers,rising sea levels,and extinction of endangered organisms caused by climate change have occurred frequently.Studies have shown that greenhouse gas emissions caused by human activities are the main cause of climate change.At present,my country’s carbon emissions are growing rapidly,becoming the country with the largest carbon dioxide emissions in the world,and my country’s carbon emissions from residential consumption have been increasing for the past 20 years,and the growth rate is relatively fast.As the central city in the central and western regions of North my country,Xi’an also faces the problem of carbon emissions.Therefore,this article conducts related research on the carbon emissions of residents in Xi’an.This paper selects 2009～2018 as the research year,consults the "Xi’an Statistical Yearbook",IPCC Carbon Emission Calculation Guide and other related literature materials,and calculates and analyzes the carbon emissions of residents in Xi’an City based on the Consumer Lifestyle Law.The results show that: The carbon emissions of residents in Xi’an are mainly affected by the carbon emissions of urban residents.Then select indicators to establish the STIRPAT model,and analyze the influencing factors of carbon emissions through ridge regression analysis.It can be seen that energy intensity is negatively correlated with carbon emissions,population size,urbanization rate,GDP per capita,comprehensive energy consumption,and carbon emissions.There is a positive correlation between intensity and carbon emissions.From the perspective of the degree of impact alone,the impact of the urbanization rate is the most significant,followed by the size of the population.Then,the model is used to predict the influencing factors by single factor,and the prediction result is combined with the STIRPAT model to obtain the carbon emission forecast value for 2019-2040.After analysis,it is known that the carbon emission will continue to increase until 2040,and there is no peak.In order to find a suitable future carbon emission development trend in Xi’an,this paper conducts phased and multi-frequency forecasts through three different scenarios of carbon emissions.The results show that the carbon emissions of Scenario 1 have been increasing.Scenario 2 and Scenario 3 will reach their carbon emission peaks in 2030 and2026 respectively,and Scenario 3 is a low-carbon development model,which can make the carbon peak come earlier.Then,through single factor analysis,it can be seen that the urbanization rate,per capita GDP,and energy intensity only affect the peak value,and basically do not affect the peak time;population,comprehensive energy consumption,and carbon emission intensity all affect the peak value and peak time,but in Under the low-carbon model,the comprehensive energy consumption and carbon emission intensity have no effect on the peak time,and based on the above results,relevant strategies for carbon peaking are proposed.Based on the above analysis,this article puts forward relevant suggestions on the carbon emission of residents in Xi’an from the aspects of population,urbanization,industry and energy structure,and provides a reference for the reduction of carbon emissions from Xi’an residents.