Study On Carbon Emission Characteristics Of Chinese Residents’ Consumption Behavior Under The Dual Effects Of Climate And Social Economy

With the expansion of the global economy and the rise in consumption levels,the extensive use of fossil fuels has led to a significant increase in global greenhouse gas emissions,exacerbating environmental degradation.China has consistently been proactive in implementing energy conservation and emission reduction measures.At the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly,China declared its intention to enhance its nationally determined contributions,adopting stronger policies and measures,striving to peak CO₂ emissions before 2030 and endeavoring to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Currently,the nation and various localities have successively released peak carbon emission implementation plans for sectors such as industry,construction,and transportation;however,these series of policies and measures that focus on material production sectors seemingly underestimate carbon emissions from residents’daily consumption.Existing research indicates that 75%of China’s carbon emissions are attributed to urban residents,where residential consumption behavior carbon emissions refer to the emissions generated directly or indirectly through the use of energy,goods,and services during consumers’clothing,food,housing,and transportation activities.With ongoing economic development,population growth,and deepening urbanization processes,people’s living standards continue to improve,leading to an increasing demand for clothing,food,housing,and transportation.Given the disparities in socioeconomic development across China’s provinces,one-size-fits-all policies cannot fully exploit regional carbon reduction potential.Furthermore,climate heterogeneity resulting in variations in heating,cooling,and other factors among regions significantly impacts sectors like industry,construction,and transportation,which is a crucial factor to consider when formulating low-carbon reduction policies.In summary,there is an urgent need to address questions such as the current total amount of carbon emissions from residents’daily consumption across Chinese provinces,their distribution characteristics and evolutionary trends,the key factors influencing residents’daily consumption carbon emissions,and the targeted measures needed to promote reductions in residents’carbon footprints in different regions.This paper aims to construct a residential consumption carbon emission accounting model,analyze the distribution characteristics and evolution patterns of residential consumption carbon emissions,investigate the driving factors behind them,examine regional disparities in residential consumption carbon emissions,and thereby provide suggestions and references for reducing carbon emissions in residential consumption at different stages and across diverse sectors.In light of these considerations,this paper aims to take provincial regions in China as empirical research subjects and,from the perspective of Clothing,Food,Housing,and Transportation（CFHT）,delve into the dual mechanisms by which climatic and socioeconomic conditions influence residents’consumption behavior carbon emissions.It further investigates the dynamic evolution process of these mechanisms and explores the joint effect that climate and socioeconomic conditions exert on consumers’behaviors.Ultimately,it seeks to provide decision-making references for reducing carbon emissions in residential consumption under varying socioeconomic levels and climatic circumstances,as well as promoting cleaner energy use.The main research contents are as follows:（1）The study defines and constructs a calculation model for residential CFHT consumption carbon emissions.The results show that in the year 2000,the total carbon emissions from CFHT consumption of residents across 30 Chinese provinces stood at1061 million tons,growing at an average annual rate of 11.20%to reach 798.1 billion tons by 2019.（1）In terms of emission structure,indirect CFHT consumption carbon emissions from residents constituted the primary source,amounting to 708.1 billion tons in 2019,accounting for 88.72%of the total.Conversely,direct carbon emissions from CFHT consumption were relatively lower,reaching 900 million tons in 2019,representing 11.28%of the total.（2）When examining consumption behavior,residential housing consumption had the highest carbon emissions at 506.5 billion tons in 2019,followed by transportation consumption with 131.7 billion tons,food consumption at 105.6 billion tons,and clothing consumption with 69.9 billion tons.（3）From a spatial perspective,Eastern and Southern regions such as Guangdong,Jiangsu,Shandong,and Zhejiang,where population density is high and GDP levels are considerable,exhibit higher levels and larger increments of CFHT consumption carbon emissions among residents.For instance,Guangdong,China’s most populous province,consistently maintained significantly higher CFHT consumption carbon emissions compared to other provinces.By 2019,its CFHT consumption carbon emissions reached 96.4 billion tons,constituting 11.61%of the national total.（2）Utilizing kernel density estimation to conduct convergence analysis on residential CFHT consumption carbon emissions,the results indicate that for both consumption behavior and emission structure,the kernel density curves of residential diet,housing,transportation,and clothing consumption carbon emissions in the years2000,2005,2010,2015,and 2019 generally exhibit a single peak.These peaks demonstrate a rightward and downward trending movement over the observed period,signifying a marked increase in residential CFHT consumption carbon emissions throughout the entire timeframe.Simultaneously,the bandwidth of these kernel density curves continues to expand,suggesting an increasingly widening disparity in residential CFHT consumption carbon emissions among provinces.Moreover,the left tail starting point shifts minimally to the right while the right tail endpoint moves significantly more to the right,further highlighting that provinces with higher levels of residential CFHT consumption carbon,such as Guangdong,Shandong,Jiangsu,and Zhejiang in eastern and southern China,tend to experience more substantial increases due to rapid population growth and economic development.Conversely,provinces with lower levels of residential CFHT consumption carbon emissions,like Qinghai,Ningxia,and Jilin,display opposite trends in their changes.（3）Employing Markov chains to analyze the evolution process of residential CFHT consumption carbon emissions,the analysis results demonstrate that,for both consumption behavior and emission structure,the transition probabilities on the diagonal of the resident consumption behavior carbon emission Markov transition probability matrix are significantly higher than those in other positions.Moreover,the predominant transitions observed tend to be towards higher emission states.The outcome of the transition probability matrix suggests that the growth changes in residents’CFHT consumption carbon emissions follow a gradual progression,without sudden surges or precipitous drops.Given that residential CFHT consumption carbon emissions stem from the everyday consumption behaviors of residents,which inherently possess a livelihood aspect,reducing such emissions proves to be challenging.Furthermore,as populations continue to concentrate in certain areas along with sustained socioeconomic development,it is possible for residential consumption carbon emissions in these regions to maintain an extended period of growth.Consequently,proactive measures must be taken to mitigate the rise in carbon emissions.（4）Selecting factors such as population（P）,urbanization rate（UR）,GDP,per capita disposable income（D）,per capita consumption expenditure（CE）,Engel’s coefficient（E）,and annual average regional temperature（T）,a STIRPAT model is constructed to analyze the impacts of climate and socioeconomic factors on residential CFHT（Clothing,Food,Housing,and Transportation）consumption carbon emissions.The analysis results indicate that P and GDP exert positive promotional effects on residents’CFHT consumption carbon emissions.UR has a negative influence on overall CFHT consumption carbon emissions,diet direct consumption carbon emissions,housing consumption carbon emissions,and housing direct consumption carbon emissions but promotes other consumption behavior carbon emissions.D and CE negatively impact diet direct consumption carbon emissions while positively promoting all other consumption behavior carbon emissions.E positively influences diet direct consumption carbon emissions but negatively affects all other consumption behaviors.T negatively affects CFHT direct consumption carbon emissions,clothing consumption carbon emissions,housing consumption carbon emissions,and housing direct consumption carbon emissions,while it positively influences other consumption behavior carbon emissions.This suggests that population factors mainly influence resident CFHT consumption carbon emissions by altering the base of consumer demand,i.e.,"more people generate more demand."Urbanization rates and economic factors primarily affect these emissions through residents’purchasing power,where"individuals produce greater consumption and carbon emissions."Climate factors play a role in influencing resident consumption carbon emissions through consumers’habits;for example,northern residents tend to favor private cars or taxis,while a significant portion of southern residents opt for motorcycles.Additionally,climate factors indirectly affect resident CFHT consumption carbon emissions by impacting upstream and downstream industries’production.For instance,high temperatures can harm agriculture,necessitating additional measures to mitigate climate impacts,which in turn lead to higher indirect carbon emissions.In summary,with the continuous growth of the national economy and a marked improvement in urban and rural residents’income levels,profound changes have occurred in the carbon emissions resulting from CFHT consumption by residents.In the current context of rapid economic development and urbanization in China,the trend of increasing carbon emissions from CFHT consumption is likely to persist.However,ensuring basic consumption needs for residents serves as the prerequisite for achieving carbon reduction in CFHT consumption.A balanced approach involving effective guidance and constraints on the consumer end,coupled with low-carbon technology innovation and product development at the industrial production end,is essential to meet this challenge.This holds significant importance for China’s goal to reach its peak carbon emissions before 2030.