Research On The Coordinated Development Of Urbanization And Land Ecological Security In Xinjiang

Town is the space of population and economic and social development,land is the material carrier of urban development.However,with the intensification of human activities,the ecological environment of land resources has been seriously damaged and land ecological security has been threatened.In the process of urbanization,attention should be paid to land ecological security to promote the coordinated development of urbanization and land ecological security.Based on the relevant research on urbanization and land ecological security at home and abroad,this paper establishes a comprehensive evaluation system of urbanization in Xinjiang from the four aspects of population urbanization,economic urbanization,social urbanization and land urbanization,and analyzes the comprehensive level of urbanization in Xinjiang from 2008 to 2019.The DPSIR model was used to establish the evaluation system of land ecological security in Xinjiang,and TOPSIS evaluation method was used to evaluate the land ecological security in Xinjiang from 2008 to 2019.The coupling coordination degree model is used to analyze the coordinated development relationship between urbanization and land ecological security.ESDA is used to analyze the spatial autocorrelation of the coupling coordination degree between urbanization and land ecological security in Xinjiang,and the grey GM(1,1)model is used to predict the coordinated development in the next five years.The research shows that :(1)The comprehensive urbanisation index of Xinjiang increased from 0.0682 to0.9486 from 2008 to 2019,a relatively large increase,and the level of urbanisation continued to improve.Since 2008,with the further and faster development of Xinjiang’s economy,all four subsystems of urbanisation have shown varying degrees of fluctuating upward change in their comprehensive levels,and the development speed of each subsystem level varies.2008-2019 shows a fluctuating increasing trend of change in the comprehensive urbanisation levels of 14 prefectures and cities in Xinjiang,with the comprehensive urbanisation development levels of all prefectures and cities continuously improving,and Urumqi city The comprehensive urbanization index grew rapidly,and the comprehensive level of urbanization was consistently higher than that of other prefectures and cities,with more obvious regional differences in urbanization,and from the specific spatial distribution,the comprehensive level of urbanization in the northern Xinjiang region was higher than that in the southern Xinjiang region.(2)From 2008 to 2019,the degree C of land ecological security in Xinjiang increased from 0.3699 to 0.6300,with an increase of 0.2601.The comprehensive index increased from 0.2451 to 0.7585,showing a rapid growth and a good development trend.The land carrying capacity was gradually improved,and the contradiction between man and land was gradually eased.D+ gradually decreases,and D-gradually increases.The level of land ecological security status shows an upward trend,from less safe to more safe.Among all subsystems,the closeness C of driving force system,state system,influence system and response system all showed a fluctuating upward trend,while the pressure system showed a downward trend.From2008 to 2019,the overall level of land ecological security in the 14 prefectures and prefectures of Xinjiang showed a slow upward trend,and the level of land ecological security gradually improved.Moreover,there were obvious regional differences in the land ecological security situation,and the northern Xinjiang was higher than the southern Xinjiang on the whole.(3)The coupling degree C and coupling coordination degree D of urbanization and land ecological security in Xinjiang from 2008 to 2019 both show an increasing trend,with C increasing from 0.4128 to 0.4969 and D increasing from 0.2543 to0.6513,but the overall level of coordinated development is low,in the transition coordination zone and medium coordination zone,and the type of coordination evolves from the mildly uncoordinated category to the medium coordination category.The D-values of urbanisation and land ecological safety in the 14 prefectures and cities show an increasing trend,indicating that the degree of coordination between urbanisation and land ecological safety in the prefectures and cities is getting better;from a regional perspective,the coupling coordination values of Urumqi and Karamay are significantly higher than those of other regions,while the coupling coordination values of Hotan region and Kechu have less change and lower coupling coordination values.(4)Spatial autocorrelation analysis was conducted on the coupling coordination degree of both,and it was calculated that the global Moran index I values from 2008 to 2019 were all positive,indicating that the two coordinated development levels of the whole region have a global spatial positive correlation,and the spatial clustering phenomenon of regions with close levels of coupling coordination degree is obvious,and the spatial distribution of coupling coordination degree shows a spatial clustering trend.(5)The grey GM(1,1)model was used to predict the future relationship between the two coordinated development,indicating that the type of coupled coordination between urbanization and land ecological security in Xinjiang from 2020 to 2024 is intermediate coordination and good coordination,and there is continuity in the coordinated development of the two systems,with a relatively stable upward trend,and they are at the stage of transition from a moderate coordination zone to a high coordination zone.2020-2024 The value of the coupled coordination between urbanisation and land-ecological security in 14 prefectures and cities in Xinjiang increases continuously,and the level of coordination gradually improves.