| With the continuous promotion of new urbanization,the emergence of phenomena such as high land intensity and unreasonable structure has caused certain pressure on the ecological environment,which has led to a series of ecological security problems such as soil desertification and soil erosion.Therefore,based on the actual development and data opening in Shanxi Province,this paper studies the level of coupled and coordinated development of land use and ecological security from 2010 to 2019,exploring the constraint relationship between intensive land use and ecological security and the optimization path,which is of certain significance in promoting the sustainable use of regional land resources and practicing the concept of ecological civilization development,and also provides reference suggestions for Shanxi Province to accelerate the comprehensive improvement of land resources,promote the implementation of the "double carbon" policy,and better promote the construction of ecological civilization.In this paper,the coupling mechanism between land intensive use and ecological security is briefly described,and the evaluation index system of land intensive use and ecological security is constructed in order to evaluate the two systems comprehensively.Afterwards,on this basis,we continued to construct a coupled and coordinated development model to analyse the coupled and coordinated development of Shanxi Province during the study period from the time series and spatial dimensions respectively,and to explore the overall change characteristics of the study area and the inter-influence relationships,and the effect of factors influencing coupling coordination degree was analyzed by grey relational degree model.Finally,the grey forecast model is used to forecast and analyse the development trend of coupling coordination in Shanxi Province for the period 2020-2029.The results show that:(1)From the perspective of time series,the overall intensive land use and ecological security comprehensive use level and coupling coordination level of Shanxi Province have been strengthened year by year from 2010 to 2019,and the coupling coordination type has experienced the development process of "borderline disharmony-barely coordination-primary coordination",and land use intensity and ecological environment capacity gradually tended to be balanced and synergistic;(2)From the spatial dimension,the coupled and coordinated development coefficient shows a development pattern of high in the centre and low in the surroundings,basically forming a single central spatial structure with Taiyuan as the core,and playing a radiating and driving role to the surrounding cities,and an integrated development pattern has not yet been formed between various places;(3)The correlation index elements of "land use intensity" and "environmental pressure" criterion layer have the most significant influence on the coupling coordination degree.And the prediction results show that the coupling coordination will maintain a positive growth trend from 2020 to 2029,while the intensive land use level still needs to be improved.Based on the above findings,this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations for the weaker aspects of intensive land use and ecological construction in Shanxi Province.The research shows that Shanxi Province should optimize the land use structure and take the road of intensive economy under the new situation.Innovate urban development mode and improve urban land ecology;We will improve oversight and safeguard measures and enhance our overall oversight capacity.By promoting systematic,scientific,law-based and information-based management of land use and ecological security,reasonable guidance for the coordinated development of regional land use and ecological security can be achieved. |