Ecosystem Service Bundle Index Construction,spatiotemporal Dynamic Display,and Driving Force Analysis

In the last four decades,China’s economy has soared and urbanization rate has increased dramatically.However,fast economic development exerts negative effects on ecosystem services,induces ecological problems and eventually threatens socioeconomic progresses and human well-being.Therefore,ecosystem services are vital for human society development.So far,plenty of studies focused on individual ecosystem service assessment have been conducted.However,studies on ecosystem service relationships,ecosystem service hotspots/coldspots,ecosystem service bundle index quantification,ecosystem service bundle index spatiotemporal dynamics and driving factors were relatively few,and the applied methods had drawbacks.We took Zhejiang as an example,displayed 12 ecosystem service spatiotemporal dynamics in 2000 and 2015,analyzed their correlations,constructed an ecosystem service bundle index system via structural equation models,recognized hotspots/coldspots,analyzed spatiotemporal dynamics and explored their potential causes by multiple linear regression model at the district and county level.Results showed that:(1)the majority of ecosystem services were spatially clustered and improved from 2000 to 2015.Synergies happened among provisioning services and biodiversity,and among regulating services and forest recreation.Provisioning services and biodiversity had tradeoffs with regulating services and forest recreation.(2)ecosystem service bundle index was composed by provisioning,regulating and cultural ecosystem service sub-indexes.Ecosystem service bundle indexes in southern Zhejiang were more even than northern Zhejiang.The northwest corner and the central of Zhejiang had comparatively low ecosystem service bundle indexes.Ecosystem service hotspots situated in the northern,south-eastern coastal part and the western of Zhejiang;coldspots distributed in the northern and central part of Zhejiang.Compared to 2000,the ecosystem service bundle index pattern was more uneven and the distribution of hotspots/coldspots was more scattered in 2015.(3)the more increase of precipitation,the more likely for ecosystem service bundle index to increase;the more household numbers and the higher urbanization rate in 2000,and the more increase of first industry gross product,the less probable for ecosystem service bundle index to decrease;the higher the initial value of ecosystem service bundle index,gross domestic product,first industry gross product in 2000,and the more increase of road density,the more probable for ecosystem service bundle index to decrease.This study established a research method of quantifying ecosystem service bundle index,analyzing its spatiotemporal dynamics and driving forces,and could give scientific references for multi-objective ecosystem service research and management.