The Evolution Process Of Ecosystem Service Value And Tradeoff Synergies Effect In Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomeration Under Multi-Scenario Simulation

The response of ecosystem service values to land use change is a hot and frontier area of research in the fields of landscape ecology,geography and environmental management,and exploring the trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem service values from the perspective of land use change scenario analysis can examine the sustainability of regional land use,build a linkage between land use planning and management and ecosystem services,which is of great theoretical and applied value to improve the integrated effectiveness of regional land use management and ecosystem service conservation.This paper takes the Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomeration as a study area.In this paper,we analyze the value of ecosystem services in the study area and the synergistic effects of the trade-offs among ecosystem services from the perspective of scenario analysis,taking the Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomeration as the research object.Firstly,we set up the land class conversion rules under the three development scenarios: natural development,ecological protection and economic priority.The CA-Markov model was used to simulate the land use data of the Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomeration under different development scenarios in 2030.Secondly,a modified equivalence factor method was used to assess the value of ecosystem services in 2000,2010,2020 and 2030 under different scenarios.Finally,Person correlation analysis was used to quantify the trade-off synergies between the two values of ecosystem services in the Lancy urban agglomeration under different scenarios,and K-Mean value clustering analysis was used to identify bundles of ecosystem services in the Lancy urban agglomeration under different scenarios.The main conclusions obtained are as follows.(1)During the period 2000-2020,the dominant land use category in the Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomeration is grassland,and whether in the period2000-2020 or under different scenarios in 2030,land use conversion in the Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomeration is mainly concentrated between arable land and grassland,with the main categories of conversion out being arable land and grassland,and the main categories of conversion in being arable land,Woodland and grassland.Under the natural development scenario,the area share of each land type is basically stable compared to 2020,with the ecological protection scenario showing the largest increase in the area share of forest land.The economic priority scenario is the scenario with the largest increase in land for construction.(2)During the period 2000-2020,the proportion of area with medium ecosystem service value in the Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomeration is the highest year-round,and the total value of ecosystem services tends to increase slightly,from RMB 32.152 billion in 2000 to RMB 33.055 billion in 2020.The value of ecosystem services in the Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomeration tends to increase,except for the ecological protection scenario,where the value of ecosystem services decreases to varying degrees.For both the 2000-2020 and 2030 scenarios,the value of ecosystem services in the Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomeration is mainly derived from regulating services in terms of primary service types,and in terms of secondary service types,the value of ecosystem services in the Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomeration is mainly derived from hydrological regulation,climate regulation,soil conservation,biodiversity,gas regulation and In terms of secondary services,the value of ecosystem services in the Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomeration is mainly derived from six secondary services:hydrological regulation,climate regulation,soil conservation,biodiversity,gas regulation and environmental purification.In terms of local categories,grassland,water bodies and woodland contribute more to the total ecosystem service value.(3)Synergistic relationships dominate the relationships between ecosystem service values in the Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomeration for the period 2000-2020 and for each of the 2030 scenarios.2000 and 2010 between water supply and hydrological regulation,and in 2020 between gas regulation and soil conservation.Under the natural development scenario,the trade-offs between the values of ecosystem services in the West Lancaster urban agglomeration weaken.The strongest trade-offs exist between water supply and soil conservation,and the strongest synergies exist between gas regulation and soil conservation.In the ecological conservation scenario,the trade-offs between the values of ecosystem services in the Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomeration are at their weakest,with the strongest trade-offs between water supply and nutrient cycling and the strongest synergies between gas regulation and soil conservation.In the economic priority scenario,the trade-offs between the ecosystem service values of the Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomeration also weakened slightly,with the strongest trade-offs being between water supply and nutrient cycle maintenance,and the strongest synergies being between gas regulation and soil conservation.Cluster analysis was used to identify ecosystem service bundles in the Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomeration at each period,and four ecosystem service bundles were identified.The dominant cluster in the Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomeration is dominated by all services except water supply and hydrological regulation.