Study On Evaluation And Simulation Prediction Of Land Use Coordination Degree In Chongqing

Since ancient times,land use has been the main theme of human’s continuous development and progress,especially in the context of the continuous advancement of new urbanization and the continuous improvement of the status of ecological civilization construction,the rational use and efficient allocation of land has become the key in the construction process.At present,on the one hand,the limited land use resources are difficult to meet the needs of economic and social development and the maintenance of ecological environment,on the other hand,the unreasonable use and destruction of land cause serious waste of land resources.Therefore,based on the coordinated development of social,economic and ecological benefits of land use,improving the efficiency of land use and easing the tension between human and land have become an important way to solve the shortage of land resources and promote the better and faster development of the region.On the basis of the benefit evaluation of land use system,the evaluation of its coordinated development will help to better understand the current land use situation,and provide data reference and corresponding development suggestions for the future improvement of regional land use efficiency and the realization of sustainable development.Chongqing is the only municipality directly in the western part of China and the economic and cultural center in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.At the same time,more than 85% of the Three Gorges Reservoir area is located in Chongqing,which is a typical ecological sensitive area.In addition,as a famous "mountain city",the available land resources of Chongqing are scarcer than that of plain city,and the urban construction and management are more difficult.Therefore,the coordinated development of land use efficiency is particularly important under the heavy responsibility of social and economic development and ecological environment protection in Chongqing.Therefore,this paper takes Chongqing as the research object and 2007-2017 as the research period.First of all,29 evaluation indexes are selected to build the land use benefit evaluation system.Secondly,the comprehensive benefit evaluation model is used to calculate the land-use benefit of Chongqing and analyze its time-space characteristics.Then,using the coupling degree and coupling coordination degree model,the coordination degree between land use benefits in the study area is analyzed.Then,based on the calculated land use coordination degree data,using the time series prediction model ARIMA(1,1,1,)to predict the land use coordination degree in the next 12 years.Finally,according to the land use efficiency,coordination degree and prediction results,the paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for the future improvement and optimization of land use efficiency in Chongqing.The main conclusions are as follows: 1)In 2007-2017,the economic,social,ecological and comprehensive benefits of land use in Chongqing showed a rising trend.The overall level of ecological benefits was higher than that of economic and social benefits.The economic and social benefits showed the distribution characteristics of "high in the West and low in the East",and the ecological benefits showed the distribution characteristics of "high in the East and low in the West";2)During the research period,the coordination degree of land use efficiency in Chongqing is on the rise,and the overall coordination degree is in a high state,showing the distribution characteristics of "high in the East and low in the west";3)In the future,the coordination degree of land use in Chongqing will increase first and then decrease.It will reach the maximum value in 2022,and then gradually decrease from high-quality coordination to moderate coordination;4)In order to improve the land use efficiency and avoid the imbalance of land use efficiency in the future,the future development of Chongqing should be considered from the following aspects: adopting the development mode of District,establishing the urban development center,strengthening the land use planning and accelerating the development of scientific and technological innovation.