Research On Risk Assessment And Control Strategy Of Regional Expressway Traffic Safety

Due to the inherent characteristics of fast speed and full closure,once a traffic accident occurs,it often has serious consequences and huge losses.Therefore,it is very important to eliminate the hidden risk and reduce the consequence intensity.However,there is still a big gap between China and the developed countries in the construction of expressway risk assessment,early warning mechanism and emergency response capacity assessment.This paper takes the expressway traffic safety risk as the research object.On the basis of summarizing and drawing lessons from the relevant theories and methods of risk management,early warning management and emergency management at home and abroad,combining with the traffic accident statistics data of Jiaxing in Zhejiang Province over the years,and integrating the relevant theories in the traffic field,this paper selects and identifies the traffic safety risk factors of expressway in the way of semi-structured interview and inquiry by experts,and constructs the traffic safety of expressway Risk index system.expressway traffic safety risks are divided into five categories: human,vehicles,roads,environment and management,with 19 factors.Senior experts in the relevant industries are invited to give scores on the importance of five categories and 19 factors.AHP is used to calculate the weight of all kinds of factors.It is revealed that human factors account for more than 60% of expressway traffic safety risks.Among the top ten,there are four human factors,and all of them are related to the driver’s Behavior Anomie;3 Road factors;1 vehicle factor,1 environment factor and 1 management factor.Due to the different frequency of utilization,people with different risk exposure level are significant different from each other when they are using the "quasi-public goods" of expressway,a questionnaire is designed and distributed to three types of expressway users with different exposure levels.The subjects are required to score the induced probability and expected consequences of 19 risk factors.Combined with the weight of risk factors,LEC Method is used to classify and evaluate the risk level of these three types of people influent by different risk factors.It is found that the risk level expectation of the three groups is positively related to the time of risk exposure,and the judgment of different risk factors is consistent.It is found that human error factor plays a major role in the expressway traffic safety,especially the driver’s behavior deviation is the main cause of the expressway traffic risk stimulation.In reality,the expressway is always a dynamic and complex system,the stimulation of traffic safety risk is often the result of mutual factors combination,not limited to human reasons,other nonhuman factors risk could not be separated from the system.In this paper,the "Hatton’s ten measures to prevent accident" is summarized into four aspects.The existing problems of risk control strategies in human errors control are analyzed,and the dilemma of human errors control is found.Then,the management currently in service and control measures of 19 risk factors are classified and evaluated,and the available risk control strategies are found to be inadequate in the overall situation,and the optimization suggestions of risk control strategies are proposed for the problems found.In this paper,the whole process of risk management is applied to expressway traffic safety management.From the aspects of risk identification,risk index system construction,risk analysis and risk control strategy evaluation and optimization,the author demonstrates how to find and control expressway traffic safety risks,and provides reference for expressway traffic safety risk decision-making and risk control strategy evaluation.