Research On Social-Ecological Environmental Risk Assessment Of Coalbed Methane Development In The East Area Of Mabi Block, Qinshui Basin

As a clean and efficient new high-quality energy source,its market development is in line with national policy guidance.Increasing the development and utilization of coalbed methane can not only alleviate the contradiction between resource pressure and energy supply and demand,and promote the stability and sustainable development of China’s society and economy;it can also ensure the safety of coal mine production,it is of great significance to reduce a series of social and economic losses such as casualties and property losses caused by frequent coal mine accidents.However,at present,China is still in the initial stage of large-scale development of coalbed methane.Along with large-scale coalbed methane exploitation,a series of social-ecological environmental problems such as safety accidents,environmental pollution,insufficient investment in prevention of construction funds,and insufficient participation of all parties in society have followed.Therefore,it restricts the sustainable,stable and green development of the coalbed methane industry.In view of this,this article takes the coalbed methane development zone in the eastern area of the Mabi block as an example to evaluate the social-ecological environmental risks caused by it,with a view to providing reference for reducing the social-ecological environmental risks caused by coalbed methane development in other blocks.First,based on the disaster system theory,the social-ecological environmental risks of the block were identified and analyzed from the stability of the pregnancy environment,the danger of the risk factors,the vulnerability of the insured body,and the loss of the danger,and the corresponding evaluation indicators were established.Second,followed by introducing triangular fuzzy numbers,ISM’s reachability matrix algorithm,and non-linear Hebbian learning algorithm into the fuzzy cognitive map model,and finally using the improved WTFCM model to evaluate the social-ecological environmental risk of the coalbed methane development zone in the eastern area of the Mabi block.The main research conclusions of this article are as follows:(1)The reachability matrix algorithm of ISM is used to calculate the relationship between indicators,and the direct and indirect relations between indicators are considered,which makes the acquisition of relation matrix more objective and makes up for the defect that the traditional fuzzy cognitive map model only considers the direct relationship between indicators.The triangular fuzzy number method is used to calculate the index weights,and the correlation matrix is established by the weight ratio formula,which effectively reduces the difficulty of obtaining the correlation matrix in the fuzzy cognitive graph model.The non-linear Hebbian learning algorithm is used to train and optimize the correlation matrix.The improved WTFCM model makes the risk assessment results more accurate.(2)The numerical value of impact shows that: the degree of production mechanization,the reliability of machinery and equipment,the strength of organizational supervision,the degree of implementation of policies and regulations,and the proportion of environmental protection investment tend to affect other indicators,and the degree of impact is large,of which the proportion of environmental protection investment is the most likely to affect other indicators The value of the affected degree shows that the exposure degree of coalbed methane resources,the risk prevention ability of personnel,the occupancy rate of the maximum ground concentration of major atmospheric pollutants,the ratio of economic loss and the casualty rate are easily affected by other indexes.Among them,the maximum ground concentration of the main pollutants in the atmosphere is the most vulnerable to other indicators.The centrality value indicates that the comprehensive importance of the reliability of mechanical equipment,the degree of organizational supervision,the degree of implementation of policies and regulations,the degree of exposure to coalbed methane resources,and the proportion of environmental protection investment is relatively high,which is extremely important for the social-ecological risks of coalbed methane development.The proportion of environmental protection investment is most.(3)In the early stage of coalbed methane development,personnel risk prevention ability and technical personnel operation qualification rate have the most significant impact on the social-ecological environmental risks of coalbed methane development in the eastern area of the Mabi block.CBM development enterprises should focus on improving staff risk prevention capabilities and strengthening the technical level of training operators.In the mid-term development of coalbed methane,the environmental protection responsibility enforcement rate,the maximum ground concentration of major pollutants in the atmosphere,and the vegetation coverage rate have intensified the role of social-ecological environmental risks.In the later stage of the development of coalbed methane,the role of the maximum ground concentration of the major pollutants in the atmosphere exceeds the role of other indicators,which is the focus of prevention management.(4)The social-ecological environment risk value of coalbed methane development in the eastern area of the Mabi Block is 0.6984.Therefore,the social-ecological environment risk assessment level in this area is level 3(medium),which is within the controllable range.In addition,the index of the maximum ground concentration of atmospheric pollutants,the risk prevention ability of personnel,the evaluation index of major pollution factors for groundwater,the qualification rate of technicians,and the vegetation coverage have a greater impact on the social-ecological environmental risks of coalbed methane development in the region.Among them,the maximum ground concentration of the main pollutants in the atmosphere has the most significant impact on the standard rate.According to the research in this paper,it is scientific and reasonable to use the improved WTFCM model for simulation evaluation from the perspective of disaster systems.This model can help coalbed methane development companies to have a more comprehensive understanding of the relationship between social-ecological environmental risks and risk factors.It is conducive to improving its risk prevention awareness and cognitive ability,improving the accuracy of decision-making,and providing reference for risk management in other block coalbed methane development enterprises.