Study On Risk Evolution Of Social Ecosystem In Zhengzhuang Coalbed Methane Development Zone In Qinshui Basin

The social ecosystem is a non-linear and complex giant system with strong self-organization.The pressure of continuous development of coalbed methane will cause the role of any one or more subsystems in the system or internal related factors,which will adversely affect the structure and function of the system.Facing this threat,human beings need to take active engineering or non-engineering response measures to guide the system to evolve into a stable and orderly social ecosystem with self-organization,self-adaptation,and self-regulation,and improve the ability to prevent system risks.The Qinshui Basin is one of the earliest regions in China to develop coalbed methane,and it is also one of the regions with the most investment,research,and strongest representation of coalbed methane development.In view of this,this paper selects the social ecosystem of Zhengzhuang coalbed methane development zone in the Qinshui Basin as the research object,and conducts research based on the relevant theoretical knowledge of coalbed methane development,social ecosystem,ecological environment security,PSR and dissipative structure.Based on the definition of social ecosystem risks in the development of coalbed methane,this paper uses the PSR framework to initially analyze the pressures of social ecosystem risks caused by the development of coalbed methane,the changes in system states,and the response measures taken by humans.Combined with the theory of dissipative structure,the paper reveals the dynamic evolution mechanism of social ecosystem risk and do further research based on the evolution mechanism of the social ecosystem risk in Zhengzhuang coalbed methane development zone.First,a brief overview of the social ecosystem risk of Zhengzhuang CBM Development Zone is introduced,and the main social ecosystem risks caused by current CBM development activities and preventive measures are introduced.Secondly,based on the PSR framework,analyze in detail the pressures,states and response to risk factors at all levels of the social ecosystem in Zhengzhuang Coalbed Methane Development Zone,and construct an index system.At the same time,identify the key risk factors at each level by combining triangular fuzzy numbers and the group decision DEMATEL method.Then,the Choquet integral operator and the Brusselsator model are combined to establish a dynamic evolution model of the social ecological system risk in the coalbed methane development zone,and then judge the current risk evolution path of the social ecosystem in the Zhengzhuang coalbed methane development zone.Finally,countermeasures and suggestions for the prevention of social ecosystem risks in Zhengzhuang Coal Seam Development Zone are proposed.The main conclusions of the study are:(1)Combining the PSR framework and dissipative structure theory reveals that the social ecosystem risk in the CBM development zone is formed by the dynamic evolution of fluctuations caused by self-organization under the nonlinear effects of pressure and response.This evolutionary mechanism comprehensively considers the interaction between multi-level risk factors of the system and the self-organization of the social ecosystem,and clearly describes the evolution process of the social ecosystem in the CBM development zone at risk.(2)Select 13 indicators from the three dimensions of mining activity,natural endowment and socio-economic factors to represent the pressure of the system.From the three dimensions of environment(water,atmosphere,soil)states,socioeconomic states,and biological resource states,9 indicators are selected to represent the states of the system.From the dimensions of management technology and system policy,select the 9 indicators represent the response of the system to build a relatively comprehensive and scientific indicator system.(3)Triangular fuzzy numbers are used to quantify expert language variables,and combined with DEMATEL method can obtain the parameters of central degree and reason degree.The DEMATEL method,which reduces the influence of expert information ambiguity and considers the causal relationship between factors,can accurately calculate the degree of interaction between risk factors at all levels of PSR to obtain key factors.(4)The Choquet integral operator calculates the pressure and response evaluation values,and combines with the dynamic evolution model of system risk established by the Brusselator model to obtain the evolution path and judgment conditions of the system risk state.The evolution model fully considers the nonlinear interaction between factors and quantitatively describes the evolution process of risk,which can accurately judge the dynamic evolution path of system risk.(5)Social and economic factors are important factors in the pressure level,and the proportion of environmental protection investment is the most critical factor in the response level.Some key factors in the social and ecological system of the Zhengzhuang coalbed methane development area in the Qinshui Basin are not well controlled under the pressure and response levels.The system is under great pressure,and the energy in the response layer is not enough to promote the orderly evolution of the system.Without intervention,the social ecosystem cannot meet the conditions for the formation of dissipative structures,and the state of the social ecosystem in the Zhengzhuang block faces the risk of deterioration.The research in this paper can provide a strong basis for the social ecosystem risk prevention in Zhengzhuang coalbed methane development zone.It can also provide some ideas and methods for the study of social and ecological system risks in other resource development regions.