Study On Risk Identification And Prevention And Control Of Coalbed Methane Industry Development In Shanxi

Energy is an important material foundation for promoting economic and social development.The degree of energy development and utilization is related to energy security and the level of economic and social development.The exploration and utilization of clean energy from coalbed methane has multiple effects,such as optimizing the energy structure,improving the safe production environment of coal mines,reducing greenhouse gas emissions,enhancing the supply of high-quality clean energy,and increasing national economic income.Encouraged by a series of policies,the Shanxi coalbed methane industry has undergone more than 20 years of hard exploration and practice,It has made any breakthroughs in aspects of exploration,development,storage,transportation and utilization,and was listed as a strategic emerging industry in 2011.With the further advancement of the coalbed methane industry,its development faces many risks such as low and unstable single-well production,high production costs,imperfect policy systems,and poor technological adaptability.These risk factors have caused different degrees of impact on the industry development,and sometimes they are intertwined and work together.In other works,the risk factors have different ways,channels,and impacts on the development of the coalbed methane industry,and their relationships are complex.The works that doing comprehensive and systematic identification of risk factors s of the Shanxi coalbed methane industry development,in-depth analysis of their interrelationships and interactions and impact strengths,scientific assessment the risk level,formulating reasonable and effective risk prevention and control systems and measures are of great significance to the healthy and sustainable development of the Shanxi coalbed methane industry to achieve the strategic goal of "four gas integration",to prevent coal mine gas accidents,and to optimize the energy structure,etc.It is also conducive for the coalbed methane enterprises and government functional departments to improve the risk management level.Based on the above mentioned situation,this paper takes the identification and prevention and control of the risk of Shanxi coalbed methane industry development as the research object,and aims to improve the risk prevention and control capabilities of the coalbed methane industry development and to promote its healthy and sustainable development.According to the research ideas of risk identification,risk assessment and risk prevention and control,the contents of this research are outlined as follows: First,the research background,purpose and significance of the dissertation,as well as the research ideas and methods are described.Comprehensive review and comment of the research status of domestic and international coalbed methane industry development and its risk management are also included.Second,defining of coalbed methane and its industrial scope,inductive analysis of coalbed methane industry characteristics,and discussion of related basic theories;Third,summarize the development status of the coalbed methane industry in Shanxi from five aspects: resources,exploration and development,technology,pipeline construction,and related policies;Fourth,Indepth analysis of the endogenous and exogenous risk factors of the coalbed methane industry development;Fifth,using multiple analytical methods to identify the risk factors based on the risk characteristics of the coalbed methane industry development,and establish a risk indicator system of coalbed methane industrial development;Sixth,constructing the structural equation model of the risk factors of the coalbed methane industry development,and trying to verify it;Seventh,building an AMOS-AHP-Fuzzy comprehensive risk evaluation model and evaluating the risk level of the Shanxi coalbed methane industry development;Eighth,on the basis of "risk dynamic correlation trigger" prevention and control ideas,to rise up strategies and measures for risk prevention and control from aspcets of resources,technologies,markets,regulations,policies atc.The research results show that:(1)Shanxi CBM industry development risk exists and the risk level is high;(2)Shanxi CBM industry development risk factors are mainly resource factors,technical factors,market factors,and regulatory and policy factors.There are different degrees of influence on the coalbed methane industry development,and they are all at a higher level of risk.Among them,the regulatory and policy factors have the highest risk,followed by resource factors,technical factors,and market factors;(3)The identified and evaluated risks of the coalbed methane industry development in Shanxi can be prevented and controlled;(4)Risk identification and prevention and control of the coalbed methane industry development in Shanxi is a systematic project.The research results of this paper can provide important references for risk identification and prevention and control of coalbed methane enterprises and related government departments,and also can provide theoretical support for risk management theories,models and applications of China's coalbed methane industry development.The main innovations of this paper can be summarized as follows:(1)Summarizing the characteristics of the coalbed methane industry and sorting out the risk characteristics of the coalbed methane industry development;(2)Establishing a risk factor evaluation system for the Shanxi coalbed methane industry development,and using structural equation model and factor analysis methods to separately identify risks;(3)Constructing an AMOS-AHP-Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation experience model,and proposing corresponding risk prevention and control strategies.