Research On Driving Factors And Peak Scenario Projections Of CO₂ Emissions In Northwest China From An Industry Perspective

In September 2022,General Secretary Xi Jinping delivered an important speech at the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly,proposing that China will achieve the peak of CO₂ emissions by 2030 and the goal of carbon neutrality by 2060.For a developing economy as large as that of China,the achievement of these ambitious goals will require the cooperation and joint efforts of all provinces and industries.The fossil energy resources are abundant in Northwest China,but its deep inland geographical location makes the economic and technological level far from that of the central and eastern regions.In recent years,the western development and Belt and Road policies have brought development opportunities to the region.Its economic level is likely to maintain a fast growth trend in the future.This will inevitably lead to the massive exploitation and consumption of fossil energy in the region,which in turn generates more greenhouse gases and has a negative impact on the timely achievement of China’s carbon peak and carbon neutral targets.In order to avoid the rough economic model and help the region achieve the goal of"double carbon".We decomposed and analyzed the drivers of CO₂ emissions in Northwest China from the multi-sector perspective,and simulated the changing trend of CO₂ emissions.The main conclusions are as follows:（1）Based on the energy consumption data of Northwest China from 2000 to 2020,we accounted for CO₂ emissions in each sector and analyzed the sectoral structure and energy structure characteristics of carbon emissions as well as the current economic development of each sector.The total CO₂ emission in Northwest China shows a rapid growth trend,from 230.34×10⁶t in 2000 to 1245.24×10⁶t in 2020,an increase of1014.9×10⁶t;the average annual growth rate is 8.8%.From the perspective of industry,the largest increase in CO₂ emissions is in industry,followed by transportation and post and telecommunications,other industries,wholesale,retail and accommodation,agriculture,forestry and fishery,and construction,respectively.From the perspective of energy,the largest contributor to the increase in CO₂ emissions is coal products;followed by electricity,oil products,natural gas and coke,respectively.Combining the sector and energy structure characteristics,the main sources of CO₂ emissions in Northwest China are industrial coal,industrial electricity,industrial oil,and transportation oil,which account for 78%of the overall CO₂ emissions.In addition,industry and other sectors are the largest contributors to economic growth in the Northwest region,followed by construction,wholesale,retail and accommodation,transportation and postal communications,and agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery.（2）The LMDI decomposition method is applied to analyze the drivers of CO₂emission changes from two perspectives:aggregate sector and six sectors.From the aggregate sector perspective,the economic output effect,the consumption structure effect and the population size effect contribute to the growth of CO₂ emissions;while the energy intensity effect,the industry structure effect and the carbon emission factor effect inhibit the growth of CO₂ emissions.From the perspective of six sector,the economic output effect plays a decisive role in the growth of CO₂ emissions in the six sectors,and energy intensity is the biggest inhibiting factor in all of them.The industry structure effect plays a pulling role in the growth of CO₂ emissions in both the construction sector and other sectors,and a suppressive role in the growth of CO₂emissions in the other four sectors.Population size plays a pulling role in the growth of CO₂ emissions in all six industries,but the effect is smaller.The energy structure effect has different roles among sectors,specifically in agriculture,forestry,fisheries,industry,construction,and transportation,post and telecommunications,which contribute to the growth of CO₂ emissions,and in wholesale,retail,and accommodation and other sectors,which suppress the growth of CO₂ emissions.（3）Based on the results of the LEAP model,the CO₂ emissions in Northwest China will reach 1621.47×10⁶t in 2040 under the baseline scenario,and the peak of CO₂emissions is expected to reach 1662.64×10⁶t in 2035.The CO₂ emissions will reach1299.07×10⁶t in 2040 and the peak of CO₂ emissions is expected to reach 1405.18×10⁶t in 2031 under the policy scenario.The CO₂ emissions will reach 1069.14×10⁶t in 2040and are expected to peak at 1275.81×10⁶t in 2027 under the green scenario.Under the baseline scenario,three sectors-agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,transportation,post and telecommunications,and other sectors-are able to achieve the peak of CO₂ emissions by 2030;while industry,construction,and wholesale,retail,accommodation and catering cannot achieve the peak by 2030.（4）Under the policy scenario,the Northwest will cumulatively reduce CO₂emissions by 4022.96×10⁶t from 2021 to 2040;among which the end-use energy consumption module will contribute 2149.57×10⁶t and the process conversion module will contribute 1873.39×10⁶t.Under the green scenario,Northwest China will cumulatively reduce CO₂ emissions by 7018.9×10⁶t from 2021 to 2040;among which the end-use energy consumption module will contribute 3929.19×10⁶t and the processing and conversion module will contribute 3089.71×10⁶t.