| The technological innovation system is affected by the external environment in which it is located.The elements of the external environment will affect the development of the technological innovation system.The interaction with the external environment also determines the destiny of the technological innovation system.In this article,we use a multi-level perspective(MLP)to study how the technological innovation system(TIS)appears or declines in various social technological transformation paths,and how to allocate the resource input of the technological innovation system is more reasonable.Construct a system dynamics model to achieve the above goals,use the two key frameworks of TIS and MLP as basic research to establish a model,and combine the technological innovation development process of China National Petroleum Corporation to conduct case studies to analyze the company’s transformation path and resource input,In this way,the conclusions of the model are verified and suggestions are made for the transformation and development of petroleum companies.This paper sets up three comparative experiments to simulate by changing the direction of resource investment,changing the relationship between innovative technology and existing systems and landscape pressure,and changing the service life of resources.The following conclusions are drawn:(1)In the case of mixed resource conditions,the average niche market size is the largest.In addition,compared with technology-led resource conditions,market-led resource conditions have developed more market-led niche markets.(2)Compared with other transition paths,the "reconfiguration path" has a larger average niche market size,especially under market resource-oriented or mixed resource conditions.(3)Shorter but more intensive resource allocation is associated with higher average niche market size,that is,a certain amount of resource allocation is better for use in ten years than allocation for use in fifteen years.The analysis of the top ten technological innovation development paths of Petro China in recent years and the company’s strategic planning for technological development are consistent with the results of our simulations.This provides a lot of useful insights for the transformation of oil companies.Entering the "post-oil era",certain signs of coal appeared in the oil field.However,there is still much room for expansion in the development of petroleum companies,focusing on the clean and efficient process of petroleum refining and responding to the national concept of low-carbon sustainable development;extending the industrial chain,differentiated production of petrochemical products,and creating an integrated supplier;integration Selectively enter the field of new energy with its own advantages.As an established traditional industry,oil companies should actively develop innovative technologies,analyze comprehensively from the perspectives of production,consumption,and new energy,and make strategic plans to promote transformation and get rid of the dependence of traditional industries. |
