| The Lancang-Mekong River,as an important economic link and resource lifeline,closely links China and the five countries of the Indo-China Peninsula,and has a close geographical relationship with each other.In recent years,the possibility of investment risks in the Lancang-Mekong River basin due to geographical factors has increased.The geographical environment of the Lancang-Mekong River Basin is special and complex,which increases the difficulty of water resources cooperation among countries in the basin.Since the Lancang-Mekong River Basin is the core area of neighboring diplomacy,and the Lancang-Mekong River Basin water resources cooperation is an objective demand for regional collaborative cooperation,and water resources cooperation has gradually become a means of geopolitical competition between the Lancang-Mekong River Basin and other major powers outside the region,the current situation for the Lancang-Mekong River Basin is There is an urgent need to strengthen the related research on the geo-risk problems existing in China's water resources cooperation and China's participation in the Lancang-Mekong water resources cooperation.Based on the research of some scholars and experts,this paper takes the actual situation of water resources cooperation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin as the breakthrough point,and comprehensively uses traditional geopolitical theory,geoeconomics theory,and compound interdependence theory to conduct research.This paper is based on the needs of frontier security and strategic development,selected the data from 2010 to 2020,and used the AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and comprehensive evaluation method to construct a risk assessment model for the geo-cooperation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin.This paper studies the political risks,economic risks,social risks and ecological environment risks in the cross-border water resources cooperation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin,and analyzes the risks that China faces when participating in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin water resources cooperation,and draws the following conclusions:(1)The cross-border water resources cooperation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin has geo-risk,with an average of 9.85,of which the social risk is the highest and the political risk is the lowest.Among the Lancang-Mekong countries,Myanmar has the highest geo-risk,with an average value of 10.04,which is a high risk,which is reflected in the high ecological environment risk.Topography,total water resources,and number of dams are the main risk factors;The average value is 9.73,which is also high in ecological and environmental risks;the average geo-risk in Cambodia is 9.88,and its social risk is relatively high.The value is 9.78,which is greatly affected by social risks and ecological environmental risks;Thailand's average geopolitical risk is9.83,its geopolitical risk index is moderate among the five countries,social risk is its main influencing factor,and overall the influence of political risk on the geopolitical risk of the five countries is low.(2)From 2010 to 2020,the geo-risks of the five countries in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin were generally stable,with the exception of Myanmar,which was relatively high,the rest were medium risks.In the cross-border water resources cooperation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin,political risks,economic risks,social risks,and ecological and environmental risks interact and jointly affect the geo-risks of countries in the basin.According to the evaluation and analysis,among the four risk factors,the ecological environment risk has the greatest impact on Lancang-Mekong water resources cooperation,mainly due to the impact of dam construction.Security of water cooperation.(3)In the process of water resources management and project construction in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin water resources cooperation,China mainly has risks and challenges such as prominent upstream and downstream conflicts within the region and the intervention of countries outside the region.This paper proposes four policy considerations for this: Actively Give full play to the role of China and coordinate the interests of all parties;follow the principle of mutual benefit and win-win results to form a community of destiny for cross-border water resources cooperation;establish and improve the geo-risk early warning mechanism for cross-border water resources cooperation;strengthen environmental cooperation and protect the ecological environment in the basin. |
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