Analysis On The Transmission Dynamics Of Drug-resistant Tuberculosis And COVID-19 Under Economic Effect

Tuberculosis(TB)and coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)are infectious diseases that do great harm to public life and health,and pose a serious threat to global public health and economy,and have aroused great concern around the world.A new transmission model for drug-resistant TB and COVID-19 with economic effects is established based on TB and COVID-19 epidemiology,socioeconomic generation and its impact.The dynamics features of the model was clarified,the key factors affecting the transmission were studied,the influence of economy on the epidemic was explored,the interaction between economy and the epidemic was explored,how to escape the economic-epidemic trap through financial assistance was discussed,and corresponding epidemic control measures were proposed.The research content is mainly divided into the following aspects:Firstly,we introduce the background and significance of TB and COVID-19 transmission,summarizes the current status of the two infectious diseases at home and abroad,and describes the relevant knowledge of infectious disease dynamics,as well as the relevant theorems and basic concepts to be used in the study.Secondly,in order to further reveal the impact of the economy on drug-resistant TB epidemic,a new transmission model for TB was proposed.Using the theory of differential equations and infectious disease dynamics,the dynamics features of the model is clarified.The numerical simulation of the model parameters showed that reducing individual infection rate and increasing financial assistance for high-incidence regions and patients can effectively control TB epidemics.Thirdly,to clarify the coupling mechanism between COVID-19 and economic development,a new dynamical system is established.It is theoretically proved that the basic reproduction number is a nonlinear combination of parameters regarding disease transmission,intervention and economy effect.Further results indicate the existence of interaction and mutual restraint among the transmission,intervention and economy,and strong coupling of COVID-19 and economy would easily trigger disease outbreak and thus form poverty trap.It is highlight that adaptive isolation of at-risk population could effectively reduce morbidity at the cost of least economic loss.Finally,the monthly economic losses of the affected sectors in Guangdong,Zhejiang,Henan and Hunan were evaluated by input-output model.The study found that Guangdong and Zhejiang's transportation,storage and post sectors,as well as the culture,sports and entertainment sectors suffered greater losses than their respective accommodation and catering sectors.The transportation,storage and post sectors in Henan and Hunan suffered the most losses,and the least impact on the culture,sports and entertainment sectors.