Assessment On Storm Surge Disaster’s Economic Losses In Our Country

Our country is a large maritime state. Our ocean has rich resources and importantstrategic position; it provides favorable objective conditions to the development ofChina’s economy and maintains many important security and development interests.But at the same time, long coastline and vast sea area make our coastal regionsbecome the frequent regions which have many marine disasters, among these disasters,storm surge disasters take the largest loss. At present, research on storm surgedisaster losses mainly focuses on the dividing disaster grade, assessing directeconomic losses, warning disaster and so on. In order to evaluate the loss caused bystorm surge disasters more entirely, the development of correct prediction before thestorm surge disasters, appropriate relief among the storm surge disasters, reasonablecompensation after the storm surge disasters, the establishment of catastropheinsurance are important mitigation measures. The evaluation of the direct andindirect economic loss has become an urgent and the important practical problemwhich our country should face.This paper aims to construct the framework of the assessment on storm surgedisaster’s economic losses, through the empirical analysis of China’s storm surgedisaster economic loss, from two aspects, this paper fits the direct economic lossesand measures the indirect economic losses, which examine the feasibility andapplicability, and provide reference for the assessment on storm surge disaster’seconomic losses.The main contents of this paper are as follows:Firstly, this paper introduces the concepts of storm surge disaster loss assessmentat home and abroad, the definition of the research object of the article, namelyevaluation scope of the storm surge disaster economic loss, which mainly includesdata fitting of the direct economic losses and the measurement of the indirecteconomic losses, and determines the main research methods of this article. This partfocuses on the specific content of the assessment of the storm surge disaster economiclosses which includes data fitting of the direct economic losses and the measurementof the indirect economic losses.Secondly, based on the understanding of theoretical knowledge, this paperderives the research results of the storm surge on the base of the disaster economics,environment economics, biology, statistics, information technology science and so on,then analyzes the storm surge disaster economic loss from two dimensions of directand indirect economic loss, summarizes the disaster factors, gives calculation formula.At the same time, this paper refers to the basic principles of the assessment of thestorm surge disaster economic losses, then constructs the index system of theassessment of the storm surge disaster economic losses.Finally, from the time series and the regionalism, this paper analyzes the directeconomic losses and the indirect economic losses. In the first part,the genetic algorithm is introduced to the neural network, the neural network is optimized, thedirect economic losses of the typhoon storm surge disaster are fitted, disaster grade isdivided, and this part puts forward the new idea for the partition method of disastergrade. On the base of the Heinrich coefficient methods, the paper uses input-outputmodel to measure the Indirect economic losses of the storm surge disaster inShandong province. The application of these methods is a beneficial attempt andexploration for the assessment of the storm surge disaster economic losses, andprovides a new way for the practice, and at the same time, the application enhancesthe capacity of disaster prevention and mitigation response to the storm surgedisasters and provides theoretical basis and data support.This paper mainly innovates in the following several aspects:Firstly, on the base of theoretical analysis, the paper constructs the storm surgedisaster economic loss assessment index system, which is systematic andcomprehensive. In the index system, the social loss and environment loss play animportant role in the system. But at present, the research on the social loss andenvironment loss is still not deep enough. The paper measures the loss with thecombination of market value method and conditional value method, this settles thefoundation for the later research work.Secondly, the paper combines the neural network and Genetic Algorithm. Fromthe angle of the direct economic loss, the paper estimates the disaster grade ofdifferent regions which happens the storm surge disasters. Compared with the actualresults, this method is feasible.