Research On Coupling And Regulation Of "Population-Land-Industry" In Coal Resource-exhausted Cities

Coal resource-based cities have made great contributions to the global development as well as China's energy security and socio-economic stability.The coal consumption has long accounted for more than 30% of the world's total energy consumption.In 2019,the national coal consumption accounted for 57.7% of total energy consumption.However,with the depletion of resources and the downward trend of coal economy,many coal cities are facing the dilemma of urban decline.Problems such as the mass loss of urban population,the destruction of urban land and the inactivity of coal industry are becoming more and more serious.There is a severe imbalance in population,land and industry.Therefore,based on the perspective of “population-land-industry”,coupling analysis and optimization control of coal resource-exhausted cities has become a theoretical proposition and practical problem for the transformation and development of coal cities in China.In view of this,this paper constructs a research framework of “characteristics analysiscoupling calculation-optimizing control”.Firstly,extracting the urban built-up area based on the Index-based Build-up Index.Then combined with the relevant index data of population and industry,analyze the characteristics of “population-land-industry” system in coal resourceexhausted cities.And on this basis constructing index system of “population-land-industry” to measure the comprehensive development level and coupling coordination degree in coal resourceexhausted cities.Finally,using the BP neural network model to predict the future coupling coordination degree.At the same time,using the nonlinear programming model to solve the regulation interval and specific regulation index of the system,simultaneously,make the supporting suggestions.The research results show that:(1)In the aspect of spatial identification and evolution characteristics of built-up areas: the expansion rate of built-up area of coal resource exhausted cities is different greatly.And the eastern region generally showed a steady growth trend,while the northeast region grew relatively slowly.In terms of timing,from 2008 to 2013,the expansion intensity index of coal resource-exhausted cities generally shows an increasing trend.At the same time,urban land expansion is not coordinated with population and industrial development.In terms of spatial variation,the center of gravity of the city shifte significantly.Meanwhile,urban compactness is low and the built-up area is loose.(2)In terms of the coupling coordination calculation and characteristic analysis of“population-land-industry”: on the one hand,the comprehensive development level of cities with exhausted coal resources is relatively low,which showing a trend of rising first and then falling(1.038-1.3075).At the same time,the land system and the population-industry system show the change characteristics of the opposite direction.On the other hand,the level of coupling coordination is in the stage of reluctant coordination and primary coordination(0.55-0.65).The resonance of the three systems of population,land and industry is poor.In terms of spatial variation,Zaozhuang in the eastern region and Huaibei in the central region have reached intermediate and good coordination level.However,the coupling coordination level in northeast is low.On the whole,the coupling coordination level of “industry-population”,“industry-land” and “populationland” in coal resource exhausted cities is generally low.(3)In the aspect of adjustment and optimization of “population-land-industry” system: in the future scenario,the coupling coordination degree of “population-land-industry” in Qitaihe has been improved,but the imbalance of population-land-industry still exists.At the best of times,in2025,the population,land and industrial system of Qitaihe will increase by 3.5%?8.2%?4.0%respectively,which is in the rudimentary and barely coordinated state.Meanwhile,the feasible range of population system development level is [0.50,0.63],and land system is [0.63,0.764].The adjustment range of the urban unemployment rate of the index is [3.6%,4.3%],and,the greenery coverage of urban area should be controlled at [48.13%,56.26%]?(4)In terms of “population-land-industry” adjustment guarantee measures and suggestions:(1)In the short term,urban unemployment rate and green area should be increased.Meanwhile improve the comprehensive development level of the population and land system.(2)In the medium term,rationally planning the urban layout and improving the efficiency of land use.Optimize and regulate the urban per capita road area and other infrastructure construction indicators.(3)In the long term,it is necessary to take advantage of the important opportunity period of the transformation and development of coal cities.In particular,the northeast region needs to enhance the intensity of talent introduction policies.(4)The most important thing is to cultivate new replacement industries.At the same time,developing tertiary industry and other ways to guide industrial transformation,fully tap the substitution advantages of cities.