The Spatial-Temporal Evolution And Simulation Of Industrial Land In Coal Resources-Exhausted City

Coal resources-based city provides enormous amount of coal resources during the construction,development and prosperity that make great contributes for the regional and national economy development and industrialization.The appearance of massive abandoned industrial land is the result in a short time with the increasing depletion of coal resources.It cannot be seriously affect the level of intensiveness of construction land use and restrict economy development but also destroy the regional land ecological environment.The key to keep regional economy orderly development,promote accomplish the optimal allocation of land resources and maintain regional land ecological security is rational guidance the industrial land use management in coal resources-exhausted city.Firstly,by means of geography science and land resource management science,this paper presents a deep analysis on guiding significance of life cycle theory in resources-exhausted city,man-land relationship theory and other theories and put forward a research framework after analysis the research status at home and abroad on resources-exhausted city and land use change.Secondly,based on the theoretical analysis of coal resources-based city evolution process,characteristics of land use change and the effect of coal resources-exhausted to the industrial land,the case study is carried out in Anyuan District Pingxiang City which located in central China.Thirdly,land use change driving mechanism theoretical research framework is constructed based on the basic concept of mechanism,and then this research framework is application to analyze the driving mechanism of industrial land use change in Anyuan District.Finally,coupled model of System Dynamics Model and CLUE-S model is applied to simulate the land use change under different scenarios.Several policy suggestions is put forward based on industrial land decrease which is extracted from the different land use change scenarios as the time sequence and change area.The research results provide decision support for general land use planning,land consolidation planning in coal resources-exhausted city,and provide a reference for the industrial land exiting in other similar coal resources-exhausted area.The main research contents and results as followed.(1)This paper analyze the research status at home and abroad on resources-exhausted city,land use change driving forces,land use prediction and simulation.Based on life cycle theory in resources-exhausted city,man-land relationship theory and sustainable development theory research framework of this study is put forward.The research of results show:industrial land use characteristics are closely related to the stage of coal resources-exhausted city’s life cycle.Extensive land use,irrational distribution of construction land use,infrastructure still backward and unreasonable industrial structure is universal existence in coal resources-exhausted city.(2)The characteristics of industrial land use change in coal resources-exhausted city is revealed.To sort out the effect of coal resources-exhausted to the industrial land changes by analyzing the urban development spatial-temporal feature of coal resources-exhausted city.The spatial-temporal evolutionary process of Anyuan District is analyzed by the use of land use dynamics,land use transfer matrix and landscape index.The research of results show:with the exhaustion of coal resource,a large number of coal mines are closed.The total area of industrial land is decreasing.Average patch area and aggregation index of industrial land is increasing,because of the rest state-owned coal mines development after a large number of private coal mines are closed.(3)Build land use change driving mechanism research framework base on the basic concept of mechanism,and then this research framework is application to analyze the driving mechanism of industrial land use change in Anyuan District.The research of results show:coal resources-exhausted makes a start of industrial land use change.The internal natural conditions and external social and economic conditions drive the industrial land change to others.At the initial stage of coal resources-exhausting,small-sized coal mines are eliminated preferentially and the redundant workers are transferred to other regions and industries.The large state-owned coal mines are retained because of the high production efficiency by the use of sophisticated equipment.As the aggravation of coal resources-exhausting,the shortage of coal resources impacts on the rest state-owned coal mines development.Coal industries exit from Anyuan District are the inevitable trend of development in the future.(4)Build industrial land use simulation model,and then this research model is application to analyze industrial land use change in Anyuan District.The results of land use change can be considered as spatial game theory among different land use types.The land use types influence each other.Comprehensive simulation on land use system should be taken for simulating one type of land use change.The particular land use type is extracted for deep analysis according to the research purpose.Coupled model of System Dynamics Model and CLUE-S model is built by taking advantage of each other for simulating land use change.Land use change in different scenarios reflects the status of transformation and development in coal resource-exhausted city.Industrial land use change is extracted from the different land use change scenarios for the sake of simulating the industrial land change indirectly.The research of results show:with the development of social and economic development Anyuan District gets out of the dilemma,as the consequence,the trends of industrial land use change in low speed economic development scenario,balanced economic development scenario and rapid economic development scenario are similar and changing faster and faster.Capital is absorbed to new leading industry and social and economic development is stimulated.The industrial land changes faster and faster.In the aspect of spatial-temporal differentiation,the industrial land in urban area of Pingxiang City and small patches near the urban area of Pingxiang City exits preferred.The area of patches for state-owned coal mines is too large to exiting in a short time.The spatial distribution and speed of exiting relates to the status of transformation and development of Anyuan District.In order to promote orderly advancement of industrial land use change,land management department can set target of industrial land use management according to actual situation of urban transition and development,and finally realize land use sustainable development.