Evaluation And Simulation Of Sustainable Land Use In Chongqing

As an indispensable material basis for human production and life,land carries important functions such as economic development,agricultural supply,and living space.However,from the current point of view,the land use problems caused by most cities in the development process frequently,such as land pollution,soil erosion,and unreasonable land use structure,have threatened the stability of the land ecosystem and the safety of sustainable land use.Promote the sustainable use of land,optimize the structure of land use,and make good use of every inch of land scientifically and efficiently,which has an extremely important impact on the sustainable use of land.As an important fulcrum city on the Yangtze River Economic Belt,Chongqing plays its role as an ecological barrier and water and soil conservation,which has a profound impact on the promotion of the entire Yangtze River Basin.Based on the analysis of changes in land use and related socio-economic indicators in Chongqing from 2005 to2018,based on the GIS grid model,this paper selects 17 indicators from the three aspects of society,economy,and ecology to construct an evaluation index system for sustainable land use and use entropy.Value method and multi-factor weighted sum method are used to calculate and classify the sustainable land use scores,in order to explore the spatial distribution heterogeneity of the sustainable land use grades in Chongqing from the grid scale,combined with the FLUS model to analyze the land in Chongqing in 2028.Use spatial distribution to simulate,and on this basis,use geographic detectors to identify the impact factors of sustainable land use.Input the multi-criteria evaluation model(MCE)to simulate the spatial distribution pattern of sustainable land use grades in Chongqing in 2028.The efficient use of land resources provides a certain scientific reference.The research conclusions are as follows:(1)Analysis of Chongqing’s land use changes and related socio-economic indicatorsFrom 2005 to 2018,Chongqing’s land use structure was dominated by arable land and forest land.Among them,arable land,grassland,and unused land decreased,while forest land,construction land,and water areas increased.The land use change in Chongqing has a strong correlation with the main social and economic indicators.With the rapid development of social economy and the growth of major social and economic indicators such as per capita GDP and fixed asset investment,land use will also show corresponding adjustments,indicating that social and economic development has an important impact on the transformation of land use patterns.(2)Evaluation of Sustainable Land Use in ChongqingThe overall sustainable land use grade in Yuzhong area is relatively low,and it is an unsustainable use grade.Most of the western Chongqing area is at the preliminary level of sustainable utilization,mainly including Hechuan,Tongnan,Dazu,Tongliang,Rongchang and other districts and counties.The level of sustainable land use in southeastern Chongqing and northeastern Chongqing is relatively high,such as Wulong,Pengshui,Qianjiang,Youyang,Xiushan,Chengkou,Wuxi,Wushan and other districts and counties.Most of them are in preliminary sustainable use and basically feasible.Continuous utilization level.Superimposing the results of sustainable land use classification with elevation and population density shows that there are significant differences in the spatial distribution of land use classes.Among them,the unsustainable use and critical sustainable use grades are mainly distributed in low-altitude areas.As the elevation rises,the sustainable land use grades gradually increase.In terms of population density level distribution,as the population density gradually increases,the sustainable land use level gradually decreases.Unsustainable,critically sustainable,and preliminary sustainable utilization levels are mainly distributed in medium-populated areas and densely populated areas,and basic sustainable utilization levels and sustainable utilization levels are mainly concentrated in sparsely populated areas and extremely sparsely populated areas.(3)Simulation of Sustainable Land Use in Chongqing in 2028(1)Simulation of Chongqing’s Land Use Change in 2028 Based on the land use data in 2005,the simulation results of the spatial distribution of land use in 2015 were verified by accuracy.The Kappa coefficient was 0.83,indicating that the accuracy was high.Therefore,when simulating the spatial distribution of land use in 2028,set natural development scenarios and ecological Protect the scenario.The results show that the spatial distribution of land use types is similar to 2018.In the ecological protection scenario,limiting factors are added and the probability of conversion of other land use types to construction land is reduced,and the area of construction land is reduced compared with the natural development scenario.Construction land is mainly distributed in central Chongqing,arable land is mainly distributed in western Chongqing,and woodland and grassland are mainly distributed in southeast and northeast Chongqing.Compared with the natural development scenario,the ecological protection scenario should be more in line with the spatial distribution of future land use.It not only controls the expansion of construction land,but also ensures the amount of ecological protection land and arable land,which is conducive to ensuring Chongqing as an ecological protection barrier in the Yangtze River Basin The role of the zone.(2)Simulation of Sustainable Land Use in Chongqing in 2028Based on the 2005-2015 sustainable land use grade area transfer matrix and suitability atlas,simulating the spatial distribution of sustainable land use grades in2015,the Kappa coefficient reaches 0.75,the overall accuracy is relatively high,the model setting is reasonable,and the model can be used to simulate The spatial distribution of sustainable land use grades in Chongqing in 2028.According to the simulation results,the spatial distribution of sustainable land use grades in Chongqing in 2028 is roughly the same as in 2005,2010,2015,and 2018.The unsustainable use grades are mainly distributed in the expansion area of construction land,while the critical sustainable use grades are mainly located in southeastern Chongqing,and there are few areas in northeast and western Chongqing.The preliminary sustainable use grades are largely concentrated in western Chongqing,basically sustainable use,The sustainable utilization grades are mainly distributed in the northeast of Chongqing and some areas with high altitude and good vegetation coverage in the southeast of Chongqing.The unsustainable,critically sustainable,and preliminary sustainable utilization levels show a gradual decrease,while the basic sustainable and sustainable utilization levels show a gradually increasing trend.On the whole,the level of sustainable land use tends to rise in 2028.Although this article explored the sustainable land use status of Chongqing from2005 to 2018 on a grid scale,and performed a spatial distribution simulation on this basis,this is only a preliminary research result,and there are still many shortcomings that need to be improved.For example,the further improvement of the index system,the rasterization method of some statistical data needs to be optimized,and the model parameters still need to be debugged repeatedly.These are all directions for further research.