Optimal Allocation Of Water Resources In Dali County Based On Simulated Annealing Partical Swarm Optimization

The shortage of water resources is a critical problem in northwest China,which has gradually become an important factor restricting the sustainable development of local society and economy.In order to alleviate this crisis,it is necessary to optimize the allocation of limited water resources.However,the traditional methods are used to determine the allocation results by virtue of experience estimation and approximation calculation when processes the complexity and uncertainty of water resources system,which leads to the deviation of allocation results.This paper selects Dali County of Shaanxi Province as the research object.On the basis of water supply and demand prediction and water resources carrying capacity analysis,a water resources optimal allocation model is designed to obtain water resources optimal allocation schemes by using simulated annealing particle swarm optimization algorithm.The practical data is adopted to validate effectiveness of the proposed method on the water resources allocation software platform.The main researches are summarized as follows.(1)According to the results of sub regional division,2018 year is selected as the current year.Based on the analysis of the economic and social development indicators of Dali County,quota method,trend method and ARMA(autoregressive moving average model)time series method are adopted to predict the water supply and demand under the planning level year 2025 and 2035 of Dali County.Meanwhile,the supply and demand balance of the two schemes is analyzed.The analysis results show that the available water supply in Dali County can not meet the demand of water users under the planning years 2025 and 2035,P=75%and 95%.Hence,adopting water-saving planning strategy or adding new water supply scheme are the reasonable suggestions to achieve the balance of supply and demand.(2)Based on the analysis of social economy,population size and the status quo of environment in Dali County,an evaluation index of water resources carrying capacity was established by using principal component analysis.Then,18 indicators were selected from the influencing factors of social system,economic system and water resources system to analyze and evaluate the water resources carrying capacity in Dali County.The results show that the carrying capacity of water resources is declining year by year in Dali County.The carrying capacity of water resources is low and the development potential is poor.Therefore,water saving planning strategy or reasonable allocation of water resources should be taken immediately to improve the utilization efficiency of water resources.(3)According to the actual characteristics of Dali County’s water resources system,the comprehensive evaluation function with social,economic and ecological benefits is constructed.For ensuring the balance of supply and demand,the optimal allocation model of Dali County’s water resources is established.After analyzing and determining the parameters and coefficients of the model,the simulated annealing particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to optimize the water resources.The optimal allocation results under different conditions in different sub regions of Dali County are calculated.Then,the water distribution of each user,water shortage degree,allocation objectives and model accuracy are analyzed.The analysis results confirm the scientific and reasonable of the proposed method,demonstrate the strong feasibility and applicability of the simulated annealing particle swarm optimization based model.(4)In view of the limitations of particle swarm optimization and simulated annealing algorithm,the idea of simulated annealing algorithm is introduced into the basic particle swarm optimization algorithm,which can effectively overcome the shortcomings of particle swarm optimization and simulated annealing algorithm.The simulated annealing particle swarm optimization can avoid particles falling into local minimum effectively and improve the accuracy of the algorithm.Ackley function,Schwefel function,Schaffer function and Step function are used to validate the performance of the simulated annealing particle swarm optimization.The results show that the simulated annealing particle swarm optimization algorithm has strong global optimization ability and high convergence accuracy,which can be a new solution for the optimal allocation of water resources.(5)The GUI of MATLAB is used as the development tool to realize the optimal allocation system of water resources.The interface of the starting module,data import module,water supply and demand prediction module,water resources carrying capacity analysis module and optimal allocation module,and the corresponding development process are detailed.The operation performance of each module is verified by using testing data.The results show that the system can help user to predict the water supply and demand,analyze the water resources carrying capacity,design a reasonable allocation scheme of water resources.The designed software enables user to receive convenience for optimal allocation of water resources.