Study On The Carrying Capacity And Optimal Allocation Of Water Resources In Ordos

As one of the important natural resources,whether water resources can be used rationally determines the degree of sustainable development of human society.China's water resources are not evenly distributed.Water resources in Inner Mongolia are relatively scarce.With its rich coal resources,Ordos City has become the leader in the economic growth of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.However,coal development and processing are high water-consuming industries.With the further development of coal resources Mining,the utilization of water resources are becoming more serious.The shortage of water resources limits the local economic growth and also affects the ecological environment of the region.Forecasting the water demand of Ordos City,evaluating its water resources carrying capacity,and making scientific planning for water use so as to make full use of water resources are of great practical significance to the economic growth of Ordos City.Based on the above background and research significance,this paper uses the latest available data of water resources,the economic,social,ecology of Ordos City from 2007 to 2018 and obtains the following main results:(1)The development speed of Ordos City is divided into low-speed,medium-speed and highspeed development models,and the quota method is used to predict the water consumption by industry from 2020 to 2030.The results showed that when it is in a low-speed development mode,the city's total water consumption showed a slow downward trend.In the medium-speed mode,the overall water consumption tends to be stable.Under the rapid development mode,the overall water consumption of Ordos City will show a slow upward trend.(2)The carrying capacity evaluation model and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of water resources have been used to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Ordos City from 2007 to 2018.The results show that the sustainable use of water resources in Ordos City is continuously rising.It was at a poor level in 2009-2011 and 2013-2015,and it was at a normal level in the rest of the year.The level of economic growth declined slightly in 2011,and remained steady in the rest of the year.The level of social development was relatively stable.Except for2008,the rest of the year was between 0.65 and 0.70,which was at a relatively good level.The level of the ecological environment fell sharply in 2011,and the rest of the year was slowly rising Status.The changes of the comprehensive carrying capacity of water resources are relatively stable.(3)Combining the results of water resources prediction and the evaluation indicators of water resources carrying capacity,a multi-objective optimization model is used to study the water resources allocation of Ordos City in 2030 under three development speeds.The results show that water distribution is roughly the same in the public and residential sectors,the farmland irrigation sector,and the ecological environment sector and the difference in water distribution is mainly reflected in the livestock water sector,the coal mining and washing sector,and other industrial sectors.This results show that the livestock water sector,the coal mining and washing sector and other industrial sectors will be the main contributors to the economic growth of Ordos City from2020 to 2030.Namely,water resources are best allocated to livestock,the coal mining and washing,and other industries.