Research On Evaluation And Early Warning Of Coordinated Development Of Marine Economic System In Liaoning Province

In the process of marine economic development,Liaoning province has been dominated by traditional marine industry for a long time,which has caused great pressure on the marine ecosystem.Coordinated development is an important part of the connotation of sustainable development,in order to realize the sustainable development of marine economy in Liaoning province,it is particularly important to understand the coordinated development of marine economy,society and marine ecological environment.From the point of view of system theory,this paper analyzes the present situation of the development of the three subsystems of marine economy,society and ecology in Liaoning province,and establishes the evaluation index system for the coordinated development of marine economic system in Liaoning province,the comprehensive development index of marine economic system and its three subsystems is calculated,the distance coordination degree evaluation model is used to calculate the coordination degree of marine economic system and among its subsystem in Liaoning province from 2006 to 2016,the Verhulst model is used to predict the coordination degree of marine economic system and among its subsystem in Liaoning province from 2017 to 2021,and finally an early earning is established.The results of this paper are as follows:(1)In the development of marine economic system in Liaoning province,there are mainly problems such as relatively low proportion of marine tertiary industry,low contribution of marine economy to regional economy,low labor productivity of marine economy,large number of marine scientific research institutions but few scientific research personnel,serious pollution of coastal waters and sub-health of typical marine ecosystems.(2)The comprehensive development index of marine economic system in Liaoning province increased in fluctuation from 2006 to 2016,the comprehensive development level of marine economic system was affected by the mutual coercion of the three subsystems,the comprehensive development index of marine ecological subsystem was relatively low,and marine ecological subsystem is a weak link in the development of marine economy.(3)From2006 to 2016,the coordination degree of marine economic ecosystem in Liaoning province fluctuated greatly,the development was unstable,the coordination degree of marine economic and social system increased steadily,and the coordination degree of marine social ecosystem increased in a small range of fluctuations,the contradiction between marine economic subsystem and marine ecological subsystem still exists;the coordination degree of marine economic system in Liaoning province from 2006 to 2016 can be divided into two stages:from serious imbalance to mild imbalance from 2006 to 2010,and from moderate imbalance to moderate coordination rapidly from 2011 to 2016.(4)According to the predicted coordination degree of marine economic and among its subsystem in Liaoning province from2017 to 2021,it is judged that the marine economic system and its subsystems in Liaoning province are in a state of coordinated and unstable development,and the early warning levels are all medium alarm,in the future,attention should be paid to improving the stability of coordinated development between systems and how to further improve the coordination degree.