The Research On Comprehensive Evaluation And Monitoring And Early Warning System For Development Level Of Strong Marine Provinces

As an important part of the global life support system,the ocean is not only the cradle of life and the treasure house of resources,but a strategic place to promote economic and social development and participate in international competition.Therefore,strengthening the construction of a maritime power is an important strategy for achieving high-quality development of the country.The prerequisite for realizing the strategic goal of a maritime power is to achieve efficient and coordinated development at the regional level of the maritime powers,that is,to accelerate the development of a strong marine province.To this end,it is necessary to develop a scientific and rational evaluation system for the development of strong marine provinces,monitor the degree of development of strong marine provinces in real time,and accurately predict the risk level of the development of strong marine provinces,so as to promote the development of strong marine provinces and the oceans.It is one of the critical issue at present.Firstly,this paper reviews the relevant theories and empirical research status of the strong marine provinces through the methods of literature research,and defines the connotation of the strong marine provinces in combination with the overall thinking and administrative management system of the marine power.Based on the connotation definition of the strong provinces of the ocean,the layer-by-layer decomposition method is used to construct the evaluation index system from eight aspects of economy,science and technology and environmental protection,and the dynamic evaluation model combining the layer-by-layer method and the dynamic multi-index comprehensive method is constructed.Also,comprehensive evaluation of the development factors and level of marine strong provinces in Zhejiang Province is done by us.Furthermore,based on the evaluation system,the development status of Zhejiang Province’s marine strong provinces was monitored based on the grey correlation analysis method.At the same time,the risk warning mechanism was designed and the PCA-SVM early warning model was constructed to realize risk level early warning of the development in Zhejiang Province’s strong marine provinces.Finally,based on the results of comprehensive evaluation and monitoring and early warning analysis,the countermeasures and suggestions for promoting the development strategy of Zhejiang Province marine strong provinces are proposed.The results show that:(1)From 2008 to 2015,the development level of strong marine provinces in Zhejiang Province has basically maintained a relatively stable state.At the same time,the cause of the strong Marine Provinces has developed well,and has shown some similarities with the development status of the strong Marine Provinces in Liaoning,Jiangsu,Fujian and Tianjin.(2)Judging from the overall state of the development boom,the stability of the development of strong marine of Zhejiang Province in 2008-2015 is relatively low,fluctuating in the edge of the booming and sluggish space and volatility;its development trend further indicates in 2016,the development of Zhejiang Province’s strong marine province may be in a state of recession.(3)Based on the PCA-SVM risk early warning model,the accuracy rate is high,and the feasibility is strong;and the early warning system constructed predicts that the development risk level of that of Zhejiang Province in 2017 is normal,warning lights emit green light warning.The results were also confirmed in the early warning analysis.