Research On Temporal And Spatial Changes Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Anyang City

The carrying capacity of water resources is an important indicator to evaluate the sustainable development of populations,economy,ecological environment and other factors in a region.It has the characteristics of spatio-temporal differences and dynamic equilibrium.Through the study on the characteristics of the spatio-temporal changes of water resources carrying capacity in Anyang city and its influencing factors can play an important role in the sustainable social and economic development of Anyang city in the future as well as the balance between human beings and water resources.Based on the compilation data,this study builds an evaluation index system for carrying capacity of water resources in Anyang City,and determines the evaluation standards,evaluation weights and evaluation methods.And then the components characteristics of water resources-economy-society-ecology systems are analyzed.The normal cloud model is used to evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources in Anyang city,and the spatio-temporal variation characteristics and difference analysis are carried on the evaluation results.Finally,the mutual feedback relationship and main driving factors of the carrying capacity of Anyang city water resourcesare determined based on the mathematical method.The main conclusions are as below:1)Based on analyzing the general situation of Anyang City and the characteristics of water resources development and utilization,22 indicators were selected to construct the evaluation index system for the carrying capacity of Anyang city water resources according to the water resources-economy-society-ecosystem constructed scheme.2)Analysis of the change characteristics of the elements of the water resources-economy-society-ecosystem.The water consumption rate showed an overall decreasing trend through time,but the other elements showed an increasing trend as a whole;from a spatial view,the main elements showed a stable distribution,and both the values of modulus of water supply and population density are central >east > west;the values of water consumption rate are shown as east > west >central;the GDP per capita shows an increasing trend from the west region through central to the east region and the urbanization rate and sewage treatment rate are shown as central > west > east.3)Analysis of spatio-temporal variation characteristics and differences carrying capacity of water resources.In terms of time,the carrying capacity of water resources in different areas of Anyang City has shown a steady increase.Among them,Anyang County has the fastest growth rate,from 0.480 in 2008 to 0.600 in 2017;Neihuang County has the slowest growth rate,from 0.502 in 2008 to 0.564 in 2017.From a spatial point of view,the distribution of carrying capacity has changed through time.Between the years of 2008 and 2017,the carrying capacity in the early stage was central > western > eastern,and gradually changed to western > central > eastern in the later stage.4)The analysis of the mutual feedback relationship of carrying capacity of water resources(e.g.,water resources)suggest that the water resources subsystem is highly correlated with other subsystems;some indicators have significant correlations.At the 0.05 significant level condition,the highest correlation is between the water consumption rate and GDP per capita(-0.9703),and the lowest correlation is between the per capita water consumption and Engel coefficient(0.5538).5)Analysis of driving factors of water resources carrying capacity.There are 8of 22 main factors which impact on the carrying capacity of Anyang city water resources during 2008-2017.These eight factors are per capita water resources,GDP per capita,water production modulus,GDP growth rate,Engel coefficient,Wastewater discharge per GDP of 10,000 RMB,the proportion of tertiary industry and per capita water consumption,respectively.