Study On The Spatial-Temporal Differentiation And Driving Mechanism Of Resource And Environmental Carrying Capacity In Baotou

With the rapid economic development and the concept of ecological civilization increasingly on the agenda,resources and environment and economic development need to achieve coordinated development,and research on the resources and environmental carrying capacity has attracted more and more attention.This paper takes Baotou City as a research area,establishes economic,social,resource,and ecological environment subsystems to constitute the main evaluation system of resource and environmental carrying capacity,and analyzes its spatial and temporal evolution characteristics,Taking 2000,2005,2010,and 2017 as four time points to reflect the changes in carrying capacity from 2000 to 2017,and to clarify the horizontal comparison between the resource and environmental carrying capacity of the 9 flag counties and districts between 2000 and 2017,The horizontal comparison of the bearing capacity can be divided into five bearing levels: weak bearing,low bearing,medium bearing,high bearing and higher bearing.The grey mechanism is used to analyze the driving mechanism and extract the indicators that mainly affect the bearing capacity of each county and county.Factors,and analyze the extracted index factors as the cause of influencing factors.Based on the analysis of the spatial-temporal differentiation characteristics of its resource and environmental carrying capacity,a CA-Markov model is constructed to perform multi-scenario simulation analysis of the resource and environmental carrying capacity in 2035,and establish two scenarios of continuous status quo and sustainable development.The main conclusions reached are as follows:(1)By analyzing the spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics of the resource and environmental carrying capacity of the study area,the results show that from 2000 to 2017,the comprehensive carrying capacity of Baotou City was mainly low and medium,with significant spatial distribution differences,and higher bearing areas were concentrated in Qingshan Kundulun District;high load-bearing areas are concentrated in Donghe District and Jiuyuan District;the remaining five areas are in low-load and medium-load bearing areas;the carrying capacity of four municipal districts has improved over the past 17 years.The carrying capacity of the flag has decreased significantly,and the agricultural and pastoral areas are basically in low carrying areas.(2)From the perspective of the three subsystems constructed,from 2000 to 2017,the economic subsystem was dominated by low and medium loads,and the imbalance between regions has eased.56% of the municipal jurisdictions are in low and weak bearing areas.The carrying capacity of Hehe and Shiguai districts has declined,and the carrying capacity of Kundulun District,Jiuyuan District,Damao Banner,and Baiyun Ebo District have increased.From 2000 to 2017,the overall distribution of the resource subsystem was relatively even,2/3 The area under the jurisdiction of the city is in a state of medium and high carrying capacity.The resource carrying capacity of Shiguai District is relatively poor.The resource carrying capacity of Damao Banner and Baiyun Ebo District is relatively good.From 2000 to 2017,the eco-environment subsystem was mainly medium-loaded,and gradually strengthened.Baiyun Ebo District and Damao Banner are in a high loading state,Jiuyuan District and Guyang County are in a high loading state,Tumoteyou Banner and Qingshan District are in a medium loading state,and the remaining three districts are in a low and weak loading state.(3)Judging from the research on the driving mechanism of grey correlation,slope,average GDP,population density,etc.respond strongly to the results of bearing capacity and show an increasing trend.The impact of average land GDP is more in the south and less in the north;the impact of the reclamation index is more in agricultural areas than in other areas;the impact of the landscape diversity index is near the Yinshan Mountains,and more in Damao grasslands than in other areas;The increase in construction land has led to a greater impact on the slope factor.(4)The CA-Markov model was used to simulate and predict the land use status in 2035.The results show that under the continuation of the status quo,grassland land types are reduced,and there are more transfers from grassland land types to construction land types.In the following,artificially set protection of water areas and protection of forest land will reduce the types of grassland land,and there will be more transfers from grassland land types to construction land,forest land and water areas.(5)Combining the development positioning of the future research area and the forecast results in 2035,by 2035,the resource and environment carrying capacity of Baotou City under the status quo continues to show an overall upward trend.In some areas,such as Kundulun District,the carrying capacity has declined.Differences among regions have weakened,and the economic development of the five flag counties has steadily increased.The sustainable development of Baotou City 's resource and environmental carrying capacity is on the rise as a whole,and the differences between regions are weakening,with medium and high carrying capacity as the mainstay.Compared with the continuation of the status quo,under the sustainable development,the carrying capacity of Donghe District is medium Upgraded to a high load,the carrying capacity of Qingshan District was increased from a high load to a higher load.