Reserach On The Spillover Effect Of Green Total Factor Productivity Growth In China

Since the reform and opening up,China’s economy has maintained a rapid growth for more than 40 years,becoming the second largest economy in the world after the United States.However,due to the long-term implementation of "extensive" economic development model,China’s economic development is accompanied by more serious waste of resources and environmental pollution.There is still a lot of room to optimize the input-output efficiency,and the problem of environmental pollution control is also urgent.Therefore,considering the dual constraints of resources and environment,green total factor productivity growth has important practical significance.For this reason,this paper estimates China’s provincial green total factor productivity and its growth source by introducing environmental pollution,resource consumption and other factors,and tries to investigate the spatial spillover of provincial and regional green total factor productivity from the spatial scale,so as to explore the path to improve China’s green total factor productivity,in order to provide possible decision-making reference for China’s high-quality economic development.This paper uses the method of combining DDF and GML index to measure the green total factor productivity of 30 provinces and cities in China’s mainland from 2003 to2017,and further decomposes it into green technology progress and green technology efficiency,and discusses their spatiotemporal evolution.Then,based on the existing research,this paper selects the influencing factors of green TFP,such as the level of industrial structure,the level of scientific and technological innovation,the level of human capital,the level of economic development,the intensity of environmental regulation,the level of urbanization,the intensity of foreign direct investment and energy consumption,and comprehensively uses the spatial econometric analysis methods such as Moran index and spatial Durbin model to discuss the spatial spillover effect of green total factor productivity among provinces in China.Finally,according to the conclusion of empirical analysis,this paper puts forward some suggestions on promoting green TFP growth.The results show that:(1)From 2003 to 2017,the overall change of green total factor productivity in China’s provinces is on the rise,in which green technology progress is the source of growth,and the change of green technology efficiency has a significant inhibitory effect.(2)During the analysis period,the change trend of green total factor productivity in different regions of China is roughly the same as the national level,but there are some regional differences.Among them,the eastern region has the highest level of green total factor productivity,followed by the central region,the northeast region and the western region;the green total factor productivity of most provinces has improved,but the difference is huge,and the eastern coastal provinces rank relatively high.(3)In terms of the overall impact level,the level of scientific and technological innovation,the level of economic development,the intensity of environmental regulation,the intensity of foreign direct investment and energy consumption can promote the provincial green total factor productivity,while the level of urbanization can hinder it,while the level of industrial structure and human capital have no significant impact on it.(4)There is a significant positive spatial correlation between provincial green total factor productivity growth in China,which is not only due to the positive spatial spillover effect of green total factor productivity itself,but also due to the spatial spillover effect of its influencing factors.Among them,the level of industrial structure,human capital and urbanization have significant negative spillover,while the level of scientific and technological innovation,economic development,foreign direct investment,energy consumption intensity and environmental regulation intensity have significant positive spillover.(5)There is no significant spatial spillover effect of green total factor productivity among the four regions in China,which may be due to the fact that the spillover effect is more likely to occur between economies with similar economic development level and geographical distance,and the huge gap of economic development level among regions leads to higher spillover barriers,which is not conducive to the improvement of China’s overall green total factor productivity.In the analysis of promoting the growth of green total factor productivity in China’s provinces,the above research conclusions at least have the following policy implications:(1)Optimize and adjust the industrial structure,pay attention to the efficiency of resource allocation;(2)Increase scientific and technological innovation,pay attention to the cultivation of new talents;(3)Actively guide foreign investment and optimize the structure of foreign capital introduction;(4)Improve the environmental regulation system and optimize the structure of energy consumption.(5)Adjust measures to local conditions,complement each other’s advantages,and formulate differentiated development strategy.