Agricultural Green Total Factor Productivity And Its Influencing Factors In The Middle And Lower Reaches Of The Yellow River

The middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River flow through Henan and Shandong provinces,which are major agricultural provinces.It plays a vital role in the pattern of agricultural development.In recent years,China has emphasized promoting the green development of agriculture and rural areas,but the extensive agricultural development model in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River has not been fundamentally reversed.For a long time,excessive use of chemical fertilizers,pesticides and other agricultural materials has brought serious ecological and environmental pollution,hindering the process of green agricultural development.Traditional studies on agricultural total factor productivity ignore the measurement of agricultural environmental pollution,leading to the failure to accurately grasp the real situation of agricultural green development.Therefore,under this background,it is necessary to include environmental factors into the accounting framework of agricultural total factor productivity to explore the real level of agricultural green development.In addition,the pursuit of higher quality agricultural green development in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River drives agricultural production to pay more attention to the protection of ecological environment,while seeking the improvement of agricultural green total factor productivity.Therefore,it is also very necessary to summarize the experience of areas with higher agricultural green total factor productivity for reference in backward areas to clarify the influencing factors of agricultural green total factor productivity.This paper selected 39 prefecture-level cities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River as the main body of research.Firstly,based on the practical problems of agricultural green development in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River,it analyzed the current situation of agricultural green development and agricultural productivity in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River according to the four agricultural zones.Then,the index system of agricultural green total factor productivity was constructed.The super efficiency SBM model and ML index were used to calculate the agricultural green static efficiency and agricultural green total factor productivity in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River from 2010 to 2020,and the results were decomposed into the changes of technical efficiency and the changes of technological frontier for analysis.Combined with Arcgis software,this paper deeply analyzes the temporal changes and regional differences of AGTFP in the four agricultural regions,and finally builds a scientific index system to measure the influencing factors.By using Tobit model,this paper empirically analyzes the influencing factors of agricultural green total factor productivity in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River.Combined with the empirical results,the influencing factors of the whole and sub-agricultural areas in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River were analyzed respectively.Finally,the countermeasures and suggestions for agricultural green development in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River were put forward.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)The green development of agriculture in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River has achieved initial results,but the process is very slow.It is stressed by the resources and environment in the region,and the agricultural ecological efficiency is low,which hindering the process of green development of agriculture in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River.(2)There is a difference between agricultural green static efficiency and agricultural green total factor productivity(dynamic efficiency).It is estimated that the average static efficiency of agricultural green is below 1,showing a stable fluctuation trend,and there is still relatively large room for improvement.It is estimated that AGTFP has a steady growth trend,and the growth of AGTFP in this region mainly depends on the level of technical efficiency.(3)AGTFP gains in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River increased year by year with regional differences.The AGTFP value of the cities in the agricultural area of Guanzhong and Western Henan is better than that in other areas,but the Loess Plateau has a strong restriction on the green development of agriculture because of the fragile ecosystem and poor soil.There is still room for further improvement of agricultural green total factor productivity in most cities in the middle and lower reaches of the basin.(4)Economic development level,financial development level,residents’ living level,fiscal expenditure and urbanization level had a positive effect on AGTFP in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River,and there was a U-shaped relationship between agricultural technicalization level and AGTFP in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River.(5)The influencing factors of AGTFP in each agricultural area are different.Economic factors,institutional factors and technical factors have significant effects on AGTFP in the Loess Plateau agricultural area and the Guanzhong-Western Henan agricultural area.Economic factors and location factors have significant effects on AGTFP in hilly agricultural areas of Shandong Province.The agricultural area of Huang-Huai-hai Plain is affected by economic factors and institutional factors.