Carbon Emission Peak Prediction Of Low Carbon Pilot Provinces And Cities Based On Energy Consumption

Climate change has a profound impact on human survival and development,and it is a major challenge faced by all countries in the world.It is a major strategy for China's economic and social development to actively respond to climate change and strive to promote low-carbon development.The pilot work of low-carbon provinces and cities is a major measure for China to respond to climate change and to achieve the goal of peak carbon emissions.Research on the peak carbon emissions of low-carbon pilot provinces and cities is conducive to understand the progress and effectiveness of China's low-carbon development,provide theoretical basis and decision-making reference for China to formulate carbon emission reduction targets and measures,and help China to explore its own carbon emission reduction path.This paper takes 10 low-carbon pilot provinces and cities as the research object.Firstly,using the statistical yearbook data and IPCC method 2 provided by the provincial greenhouse gas inventory compilation Guide(Trial),this paper analyzes the economic and social development,energy consumption and carbon emissions of10 low-carbon pilot provinces and cities in the 18 years from 2000 to 2017.Secondly,it uses LMDI decomposition model to analyze the 10 low-carbon pilot provinces and cities Carbon pilot provinces and cities decompose the influencing factors of carbon emissions,and identify the positive and negative driving factors of carbon emissions.Then,by constructing STIRPAT model and combining with scenario analysis method,this paper forecasts the carbon emissions of low-carbon pilot provinces and cities from 2018 to 2040,and obtains the peak and peak time of carbon emissions of each province and city.Finally,some carbon emission reduction suggestions are put forward according to the analysis results.The main results are as follows.(1)This paper analyzes the economic and social conditions,energy consumption and carbon emissions of 10 low-carbon pilot provinces and cities in the 18 years from2000 to 2017.The results show that the economy of most provinces and cities has obvious growth in the study period,and the proportion of the primary industry in the regional economy is the lowest;the overall population shows a growth trend,but the growth rate remains at a low level;the average urbanization water has a certain development,but there is still a large gap.On the whole,the total energy consumption of provinces and cities showed a trend of first rising and then falling or first rising and then maintaining stability,and the growth rate gradually decreased or even decreased.The energy consumption structure of provinces and cities is still dominated by coal as a whole,but the energy consumption structure is in the process of continuous optimization.The total carbon emissions of provinces and cities increased rapidly in the early stage,and slowed down or even declined in the middle and late stage;the contribution of the primary industry to the total carbon emissions was the smallest,and the gap between the secondary and tertiary industries to the total carbon emissions gradually narrowed.(2)Using LMDI decomposition model,the total carbon emissions of each province in the 18 years from 2000 to 2017 are decomposed into five parts: energy structure effect,energy intensity effect,industrial structure effect,economic growth effect and population scale effect,and the total effect is calculated to identify the positive and negative driving factors of carbon emissions.The results show that the total effect of carbon emission in these 10 low-carbon pilot provinces and cities is positive in 18 years;the number of positive driving factors is more than negative driving factors in the 10 low-carbon pilot provinces and cities.(3)The prediction results of carbon emission peak show that: Although the 10low-carbon pilot provinces and cities have different peak time and peak value,they can basically reach the peak value of carbon emission by 2030 or even before 2030;improving the adjustment and optimization speed of negative factors(carbon emission intensity,proportion of secondary industry,proportion of coal consumption)will help to reduce the peak value of carbon emission and speed up the development The positive factors(population,per capita GDP,urbanization rate)change from medium speed to high speed,which will increase the peak carbon emissions and delay the peak time;however,the impact of each variable on the peak carbon emissions of each province is different.(4)According to the analysis of the current situation and influencing factors of carbon emission in various provinces and cities,the following carbon emission reduction measures are proposed: adjusting the energy structure to improve energy utilization rate;accelerating the transformation of industrial structure to achieve circular green development;developing low-carbon technology to reduce carbon emission intensity;developing green low-carbon transportation to promote the development of low-carbon towns.