Study On The Prediction Of Carbon Emission Peak In China

Global warming is one of the most serious challenges facing mankind in the sustainable development of twenty-first Century.Related studies have shown that 90% of the probability of global warming may be caused by excessive emissions of greenhouse gases(GHG),which will pose a serious threat to the survival and development of human beings.Since the reform and opening up,China's economy has developed rapidly,but the rapid growth of China's economy has brought a series of problems,especially energy and environmental problems.China's economic growth is too dependent on capital,labor and a large amount of energy consumption.By the year 2013,China's energy consumption had occupied 21.9% of the world's energy consumption,and China also surpassed the United States as the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide.The energy issue has become the key to China's sustainable development.In addition,the environmental problems in China are becoming more and more serious.Soil and water pollution and the frequent haze of the country have brought more and more threats to people's health,climate and social development.At present,China is still in the stage of rapid development,China is facing serious pressure of carbon emission reduction in order to achieve sustainable economic development and environmental protection.In order to realize the smooth progress of carbon emission reduction,it is necessary to understand China's carbon emission reduction factors,make clear the time of carbon emission and explore the potential of carbon emission reduction,and finally find a way of carbon emission reduction in accordance with China's national conditions.In this paper,the present situation of China's economic and social development and industrial structure are briefly introduced.The factors affecting China's carbon emissions are factored in the factors of LMDI,the influence factors of China's carbon emissions are analyzed,the effect and contribution rate of the factors are analyzed,and the factors which have a greater impact on carbon emissions are selected.Su,as an input parameter,takes China's carbon emissions as an output parameter,and takes the extreme learning model as a test to establish a carbon emission prediction model.In order to demand the optimal path of carbon emission reduction in China,based on the LMDI factor decomposition and the limit learning machine model,in this paper,seven indicators,including economic development,population size,energy structure,energy consumption,energy intensity,industrial structure and urbanization rate,are established to set relevant development scenarios for China's future carbon emissions The annual carbon emissions and the peak carbon emissions under various scenarios are determined by controlling the relative low carbon development scenarios,and the optimal carbon emission scenarios and paths have been identified to specify a more reasonable carbon emission reduction policy.According to the analysis of the results,it can be concluded that technological progress,optimization of energy structure and optimization of industrial structure have a greater impact on peak carbon emissions.Therefore,in order to reach the peak of carbon emission as soon as possible without affecting the speed of economic development,we should make efforts to develop and put forward relevant policies in the process of technological progress,industrial structure policy and energy structure optimization.