Analysis Of Carbon Emission Characteristics,driving Factors And Low Carbon Transformation Paths In Resource-based Cities

As the world's largest energy consumer and CO₂ emitter,China attaches great importance to addressing climate change and proposes to achieve carbon peaking by 2030and carbon neutrality by 2060 to mitigate global climate change.As an important subject of national economic and social development,the low-carbon development of cities is crucial for China to achieve the double carbon target,among which the low-carbon transformation of resource-based cities is especially critical.Resource-based cities are important strategic bases for securing energy resources in China and have made great contributions to China's economic development.Long-term rough resource development has made resource-based cities an important region that restricts China's comprehensive and low-carbon development.Therefore,it is important to explore the carbon emission drivers,carbon emission peaking scenarios and low-carbon transition paths of resource-based cities for their energy greening,industrial transformation and high-quality economic development.In this study,the CO₂ emissions inventory of 84 resource-based cities in China from2005 to 2017 was compiled by the emission factor method,the CO₂ emission characteristics of resource-based cities were analyzed,and the contribution of different drivers,industries and city types to CO₂ emissions at different stages was discussed by using the LMDI model,and based on the grey prediction model and the factor impact model,the peak of CO₂emissions of resource-based cities was predicted,and a differentiated low-carbon development path was proposed.The main conclusions are as follows.(1)CO₂ emissions in resource-based cities are on the rise,and the decoupling of economic growth and CO₂ emissions has not yet been achieved.The per capita CO₂emissions and emission intensity of resource-based cities are 1.8 times and 2.4 times of the national average respectively,and the pressure and potential for carbon emission reduction are the same.(2)The structural adjustment of resource-based cities needs to be strengthened.In the fossil energy structure,coal-related CO₂ emissions account for as much as 80%.In the industrial structure,the metal and non-metal manufacturing industry and the electricity,heat and gas production industry account for 65%of CO₂ emissions.(3)Economic growth and energy intensity are the biggest drivers and main inhibitors of CO₂ emission growth.After the economic development enters the new normal,industrial restructuring has become the biggest inhibitor of CO₂ emissions growth.The industrial restructuring in mature cities and technological upgrading in regeneration cities inhibit the growth of CO₂ emissions in resource-based cities.(4)Under the low-carbon scenario,CO₂ emissions from resource-based cities will reach peak in 2030.The carbon peaking path are:accelerating technological progress so that energy intensity will continue to decrease during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plan periods,with energy intensity decreasing by about 35%in 2030 compared to 2017;accelerating energy restructuring to reverse the positive driving effect of fuel quality on CO₂ emissions during the 14th Five-Year Plan period;and strictly controlling the GDP growth rate to maintain an average annual growth rate of about 6%.Differentiated low-carbon development paths are proposed.(1)Mature cities contribute the most to the CO₂ emissions of resource-based cities,and the focus of emission reduction is on industrial restructuring and upgrading,accelerating the cultivation of leading enterprises and industrial clusters for deep processing of resources;(2)Growth cities are rich in resource reserves,and should improve the level of deep processing of resources in addition to vigorously developing clean energy,guiding the transformation and upgrading of traditional thermal power,and promoting the optimization of energy structure;(3)Regeneration cities are the pioneer areas of low-carbon transformation of resource-based cities.They should accelerate the development of modern service industry,improve the level of scientific and technological innovation,and accelerate the upgrading of low-carbon technology;(4)Recession cities should vigorously develop circular economy,fully exploit characteristic new industries,and cultivate new economic growth poles.Exploring the carbon emission drivers,carbon emission peaking scenarios and tailored low-carbon development paths of resource-based cities under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets can provide a scientific basis for industrial transformation and high-quality economic development of resource-based cities,as well as data support for the development of carbon neutrality action plans.The low-carbon development of resource-based cities can help China meet its commitment to carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,and will also provide valuable sustainable development experience for resource-based cities in other countries and regions.