Can The Goal Of Global Temperature Control Be Achieved?

Carbon dioxide is the most important greenhouse gas leading to global warming,and carbon emission reduction is an important measure to mitigate the greenhouse effect,so it has become a hotspot in global climate change research.The United Nations framework convention on climate change(UNFCCC)is the most important stage for the global response to climate change,especially the 2015 Paris climate conference(COP),which is regarded as "the most successful climate change conference ever".At that meeting,nearly 200 countries agreed on the Paris agreement,which set a new climate target of limiting the average global temperature rise to 2? from pre-industrial levels and trying to limit the increase to 1.5?.The Paris agreement stipulated that emission reduction targets should be based on the"Intended Nationally Determined Contributions(INDCs)" model from the bottom up,in which parties determine their action targets to tackle climate change based on their own conditions.Due to its flexibility,the INDC model has attracted extensive participation from most countries in the world.Currently,over 190 countries/regions have formally submitted their INDCs.Global cooperation on climate change has entered a specific stage of implementation,and it is of great significance to reasonably evaluate and compare the emission reduction intensity of countries'intended nationally determined contributions(INDCs)to promote further emission reduction and make tangible contributions to the realization of global temperature control goals.In this paper,15 major carbon emission developed countries and 20 major carbon emission developing countries,which account for 80%of global carbon emissions,are selected as the research objects to evaluate whether their independent contribution emission reduction targets can achieve the temperature control targets set out in the Paris Agreement.Firstly,the driving factors of carbon emission evolution in various countries from 2000 to 2016 are investigated,and the contributions of historical carbon emission factors between developed and developing countries are compared.Secondly,Monte Carlo simulation is used to analyze the potential evolution trend of carbon emissions in benchmark scenario,optimization scenario and enhanced scenario in 2016-2030,so as to judge whether countries can achieve their own INDC goals.Third,examine whether the INDC of various countries can achieve the goal of global temperature control.The results show that:first,R&D efficiency,R&D intensity and investment intensity play an important role in promoting carbon emissions in both developed and developing countries,while the contribution rate of energy consumption structure and population size to carbon emissions in developed and developing countries is low.Second,under the constraints of INDC targets submitted by countries,only a few countries can achieve the emission reduction targets in the target year of INDC under the benchmark scenario.In the optimization scenario,more than half of the developed and developing countries can achieve the goal of autonomous contribution,while in the enhanced scenario,more than 80%of the countries can achieve the goal of autonomous contribution.Third,the INDC goal submitted by various countries is not enough to achieve the global temperature control goal,and the gap between the developed and middle countries to achieve the global temperature control target of 2?/1.5? is much larger than that of the developing countries.Compared with the existing research,the main research contribution of this paper is reflected in the following aspects.First,the research object is expanded and the INDC.of each country is assessed from the perspective of comparison between developed and developing countries.Second,the influence of different driving factors on the changes of historical carbon emissions in various countries is analyzed quantitatively.Third,the risk analysis is introduced,and the Monte Carlo simulation and scenario analysis are combined to simulate the future changes of carbon emissions in various countries.