Study On Temporal And Spatial Evolution Characteristics And Prediction Of Carbon Emissions In Countries Along The "Belt And Road" Under The Temperature Control Target Of 2℃

At present,the global temperature warming caused by the greenhouse effect has led to frequent occurrence of extreme weather,which has brought many impacts on human survival activities.Carbon dioxide is one of the main factors causing the greenhouse effect.Since 2009,the total carbon dioxide emissions of the 66 countries along the “Belt and Road” have exceeded 50%.And most of these countries are developing countries,which are in the early stage of industrialization,and will likely be the main source of growth in global energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.Analyzing the carbon dioxide emission levels of countries along the“Belt and Road” is conducive to formulating coordinated and scientific emission reduction goals and strategies,and exploring new development paths for achieving the 2℃ temperature control goal.Time series analysis and spatial exploratory analysis of carbon dioxide emission levels in 66 countries were conducted and uses the Tapio decoupling model to analyze the decoupling effect in this thesis.The results show that there were 22 years of weak decoupling between 1990 and 2019;The overall transfer path of the center shows an "L"-shaped transfer change;the global spatial autocorrelation Moran’I index of per capita carbon dioxide emissions from 1990 to 2019 is positive,indicating that there is a significant positive spatial correlation.The carbon emission rights of 66 countries from 2020 to 2100 are allocated under the temperature control target of 2℃,and the results show that the country with the most allocation is China with 121.67 billion t of carbon dioxide.Countries with an annual per capita quota of less than 1 ton per year are mainly located in Central Asia and Southeast Asia;countries with an annual per capita quota of 2-5 t/year are mainly located in Eastern Europe;other countries have an annual per capita quota of about 1-2 t/year.The 66 countries were divided into 6 categories by clustering algorithm,and the representative countries in these 6 categories of countries were predicted and analyzed through the STIRPAT model and the SSPs path.The results show that the earliest scenario of carbon peak time in China from 2020 to 2100 is SSP3,the corresponding time is 2031,and its peak amount is 11.78 billion t of carbon dioxide,and the remaining SSP scenarios will delay the carbon peak to varying degrees time.There are 34 figures,7 tables,and 76 references in this thesis.