Research Of Land Use Structure Change And Optimal Allocation

Land is the most important physical basis of human being's existence and social development. Land sustainable utilization is an essential aspect to the sustainable development of human society since it acts as a hinge in interrelation among population, resource and environment. With the growth of the population and the rapid development of the economic construction, the contradiction between the people and land resource has become more and more sharp. Thus, how to rationally utilize and distribute the limited land resource is the most important issue for area's sustainable development.This paper regards the Qerchen as studying area, at first, on the base of location, natural, social and economic background of land use, the essential feature and existing problem of the land use structure of the Qerchen were analyzed qualitatively. according to the area's current status of land use structure of past years (1998-2008). the analyze results shows that: Qerchen land utilization has the following features that possessed big amount of land, less amount of useful area, irrational Land use structure, and the rate of land utilization is lower. in the next paragraph, On the basis of these data, conclusively established the evaluation index system of Land use benefit that can reflect the Level of inputs and outputs of land. By applying AHP method, Comprehensive index model, evaluated on the current land use structure resulting social, economic and ecological benefits. The Evaluation showed that, Qerchen was in that condition of lower Utilization of land resource and lower Efficiency. But the last 10 years, economic, social and ecological benefits of land use shows that be slightly increasing trend. According to that Analysis results, rationally readjusting the land use structure is the important means of Improving land use efficiency.In this paper Based on Land Use Efficiency, studying optimization of Land use structure. Then, the population, per unit area yield, the demand of land, revenue coefficient, resource constrains are predicted according to the Qerchen's data over the past years(1998-2008)by applying the predicting model of average growth rate, linear regression and GM(1,1),and the mean value of these forecasting method is forecasting value of 2020. Based on this, the initial operation model was set up, and the land use structure was optimized with 11 variables set up according to feature of the land sources, the demand of society and economy development, management custom and development direction in the future of the county, the maneuverability of relevant data was considered comprehensive as well. To embody the principles of high benefit and low cost of land use and the optimal collocation of land resources, set up 10 Restrained Condition utterly. To The economy as the goal, built the linear programming Objective function, by LINGO software, adopted the linear programming, and Calculate the optimized result of the area of cultivated land, garden land, forest land, grazing land, other agricultural land, city, town village as well as industrial and mining land, traffic Land, water area and unused Land separately 20172.05ha~2?5563.17ha~2?136888.6ha~2?1899385.40ha~2?7817.62ha~2?409.75ha~2?2437.31ha~2?543.63ha~2?954.12ha~2?141193.64ha~2?11567740.38ha~2 in 2020?Maximum economic benefits arising to 39.3706 billion, and compared to 964.02 million Yuan in 2008, increased 4.18 times. Cultivated land, garden plot, woodland, and other agricultural, traffic land, residential land, mining and Special land, water facilities, also increased to varying degrees, and Pasture and unused land ware decreased.Finally, provide Solution method and suggestion for Relevant decision-making. Summarize the main study result, and Discuss problems and prospects. Problems ware first is that because of the hardness of Data collection and data sources, evaluation index system are Not very comprehensive, Therefore, Evaluation results are not Very accurate; Constraints also did not cover all the relevant constraints, thus,a certain degree reduce the accuracy of optimization results. The second is that this article is only use the linear programming model and obtains the optimal results, not combined with GIS, if combined the Predicted results and the optimization results will be more accurately reflect the status of Qerchen. These issues wait for further study in future.