Analysis On Spatial-temporal Evolution Process And Influencing Factors Of Agricultural Production Efficiency In Jiangsu Province

Since the rural reform,Agricultural construction has made great progress in China,but the problems of unsustainable expansion of resource input,internal and external pollution of agriculture have become increasingly prominent.Sustainable agricultural development is facing a realistic challenge that finding a balance between agricultural production development,resource and environmental constraints.Jiangsu Province is a major agricultural province,and its agricultural development has an important impact on China.While Jiangsu's agricultural economy is booming,it is also faced with challenges such as "double constraints" of resources and environment,structural shortage of labor,and the difficult task of optimizing the allocation of resources.Sustainable agricultural development in Jiangsu requires priority in production,as well as resource conservation and environmental friendliness.The primary task is to improve agricultural production efficiency.Existing agricultural production efficiency studies are mostly based on provincial and municipal scales,and there are more or less deficiencies in the selection of efficiency evaluation indicators,measurement methods,and analysis of influencing factors.Based on this,this study reinterpreted the connotation of agricultural production efficiency(APE)from the perspective of agricultural complex ecosystem;then,based on the existing research,the land quality and output of economic,social,ecological benefits and agricultural carbon emissions and non-point source pollution are included to build a more complete evaluation index system for APE;take2000-2015 as the research period,take 77 county-level units as research units,and use the improved EBM model calculate the production efficiency,and then reveal the spatial and temporal evolution process of APE by methods such as kernel density estimation and spatial Markov chain.Finally,select influencing factors of APE from the three-dimensions of agricultural resource utilization quality,utilization pattern and input intensity,and detect the dominant influencing factors based on Geodetector,based on this,carrying out an analysis of the optimization potential of APE.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Generally,the APE of Jiangsu Province decreased from 2000 to 2005,and was the lowest in 2003,and then showed an upward trend,from 0.827 to 0.758 and then to 0.941,over time,the pattern has evolved from “low-low agglomeration” to“high-high agglomeration”.Medium efficiency was the mainstay in 2000,lower efficiency was the mainstay in 2005,medium and high efficiency was the mainstay in2010,and high efficiency was the mainstay in 2015.In Jiangsu,APE has the characteristics of agglomeration and continuous development.The change of APE is affected by the efficiency type of adjacent units,if it is adjacent to a higher(lower)efficiency type,the probability of upward(download)transfer is more large.(2)It is found that zone detection is easier to distinguish the dominant factors of spatial differentiation of APE in Jiangsu.In terms of the agricultural resource utilization quality,The dominant factor is the completeness of infrastructure,and the average q value is 0.421.In terms of utilization pattern,the dominant factors are cultivated land fragmentation,the proportion of facility agricultural land,reclamation index,and the average q values are 0.502,0.239,0.244.In terms of input intensity,the dominant factors are average cultivated land area per labor,fertilizer and pesticide per land,and the average q values are 0.461,0.492,0.417.Factors interaction include Enhance,bivariate and Enhance,nonlinear..(3)There are spatial differences in the optimization potential of APE.There are16 units with high potential for improving the quality and pattern of agriculturalresources utilization,mainly distributed in Fengxian,Peixian,Pizhou,Binhai,Xiangshui,Lianyungang,Zhenjiang urban area,etc.;there are 8 units with high potential for improving the utilization pattern and input intensity,including Huai'an urban area,Nanjing urban area,Hai'an,Rudong,Jiangyan,Dongtai,Dafeng and Sheyang;There are 3 units with high potential for improving the utilization quality and input intensity,including Xinghua,Liuhe,and Jiangyin;There are 4 units with low optimization potential,namely Pukou,Tongzhou,Wuxi urban area and Yancheng urban area;there are 4 units whose optimization potential is all at a lower level,including Pukou,Tongzhou,Wuxi urban area,and Yancheng urban area;there are 3units whose optimization potential is all at a higher level,including Kunshan,Jiangdu and Gaoyou.This study enrich the theory and method system of the APE research.It can provide a useful reference for differentiate the efficient use and management of agricultural resources in Jiangsu.