Study On Spatial-Temporal Evolution Of Rural Vulnerability In Yunnan Province From The Perspective Of Sustainable Development

Sustainable development is a strategic goal for the healthy development of the regional"population-resource-environment-economy"system.The countryside is usually a region where agricultural production is the main mode of economic activity,the social structure is relatively simple,the mobile population is small,and the economy is underdeveloped,and its economy and society are more fragile than those of the cities.Especially in mountainous areas,their"innate"ecological environment is very fragile,and this inherent ecological vulnerability is superimposed with the special geographical characteristics of the countryside,where agricultural production is the main mode of economic activity and the productivity level is relatively low,forming the ecological-economic-social vulnerability of the mountainous countryside in three dimensions,and this three-dimensional vulnerability of the countryside This three-dimensional vulnerability of the countryside directly determines the low sustainable development capacity of the"population-resource-environment-economy"system in the countryside,and the whole economy and society are still relatively backward.How to reduce the three-dimensional vulnerability of mountainous villages and enhance their sustainable development capacity has become a major task for the sustainable development of mountainous rural systems and rural revitalization strategies.In-depth research on the comprehensive evaluation and dynamic evolution of the ecological-economic-social three-dimensional vulnerability of mountainous villages can provide the basic basis and support for this important task.In the current study,there is no continuous multi-year study on rural vulnerability assessment based on remote sensing and GIS in mountainous provinces,and there is also a lack of research on the correlation between rural vulnerability and poverty level in each region.Therefore,this paper integrates"remote sensing and GIS+multi-period land use/land cover change+rural vulnerability evaluation theory and quantitative practical methods",and is based on mountainous provinces,focusing on the basic characteristics of mountainous areas-the vulnerability of ecological environment.The study is based on the vulnerability of mountainous areas.Based on the results of remote sensing image interpretation of land use/land cover in Yunnan Province for three periods（2000,2010 and 2020）,a comprehensive evaluation index system is established from three dimensions of rural ecological vulnerability,economic vulnerability and social vulnerability,using a combination of subjective and objective methods to determine the weight of each index,combining the quantitative multi-indicator comprehensive evaluation method with the qualitative comprehensive analysis method,and quantitatively measuring the vulnerability of rural areas.The quantitative multi-indicator evaluation method and the qualitative comprehensive analysis method are combined to quantitatively measure the degree of rural vulnerability of 129 counties in Yunnan Province in 2000,2010 and 2020,and qualitatively classify the degree of ecological vulnerability,economic vulnerability,social vulnerability and overall vulnerability of different levels,and at the same time,reveal the changes in the degree of rural vulnerability of the province and each county from 2000 to 2020 in both time and space.In addition,we analyzed the three-dimensional vulnerability assessment of rural villages in the following three dimensions In addition,on the basis of analyzing the spatial and temporal evolution of rural three-dimensional vulnerability evaluation results,a spatial econometric model is used to construct an index system of influencing factors from five aspects:industrial economy,investment expenditure,population structure,ecological environment,and geographical conditions,to further identify and analyze the influencing factors of ecological vulnerability,economic vulnerability,social vulnerability,and overall vulnerability,and to divide each county into four levels according to different poverty levels The influencing factors of ecological,economic and social vulnerability and their effects were studied in each county according to four levels of poverty.The main findings of the study are as follows:（1）From 2000 to 2020,the ecological vulnerability,economic vulnerability and social vulnerability of the countryside have been significantly reduced,and accordingly,the overall vulnerability of the countryside has been reduced to some extent.In terms of the overall vulnerability level,the province has decreased from"highly vulnerable"in 2000 to"low vulnerable"in 2020.This indicates that the ecological protection,rural development and construction in the past 20 years have strongly reduced the overall vulnerability of the countryside.（2）The changes in ecological vulnerability,economic vulnerability,social vulnerability and overall vulnerability rank of county villages from 2000 to 2020 are more complicated.From the change of ecological vulnerability level,81 counties（62.79%）have a lower ecological vulnerability level,while 48 counties（37.21%）have no change in ecological vulnerability level;from the change of economic vulnerability level,118 counties（91.47%）have a lower economic vulnerability level,while 11 counties（8.53%）have There was no change;from the change of social vulnerability rank,126 counties（97.67%）decreased,while 3 counties（2.33%）had no change in social vulnerability rank;from the overall vulnerability rank,126 counties（97.67%）had a decrease in overall vulnerability,etc.,while 3 counties（2.33%）had no change in overall vulnerability rank.（3）From the current situation（2020）,the degree of ecological vulnerability,economic vulnerability and social vulnerability of rural Yunnan Province is still high in general,and the overall degree of vulnerability is also high.2020 average D_REV-1,D_REV-2and D_RSVvalues of the province are 40.74,40.69 and 49.50 respectively,corresponding to the levels of the corresponding grades are"low vulnerability","low vulnerability"and"moderate vulnerability".The final measured D_ROVvalue is 43.35,which is also"low vulnerability"in general,but close to the lower limit of"moderate vulnerability"(D_ROVvalue 45).The basic situation reflected by this feature is that the current ecological vulnerability,economic vulnerability and social vulnerability of Yunnan Province has obvious deficiencies or defects for sustainable rural development,rural resource exploitation activities and rural development have caused certain impact and damage to the ecological environment,and the economic and social benefits are not high.（4）Regional differences in the overall vulnerability of the rural areas in the province are large,with the overall vulnerability of the high mountain plateau valley area in Northwest Yunnan,the mountain plain area in Northeast Yunnan,and the low and middle karst mountains in Southeast Yunnan being higher,especially the highest in the high mountain plateau valley area in Northwest Yunnan,where the overall vulnerability(D_ROV)values mostly belong to the"moderate vulnerability"and"high vulnerability"levels.and"highly vulnerable";the overall vulnerability of southern,southwestern and central Yunnan is lower than the above-mentioned regions,and the overall vulnerability(D_ROV)values mostly reach"low vulnerability"and"moderate vulnerability The overall vulnerability(D_ROV)values mostly reach the"low vulnerability"and"moderate vulnerability"levels.The overall vulnerability of87.60%of counties and villages in the province is"low vulnerability"and"moderate vulnerability",while a few counties are"high vulnerability"and"very high vulnerability"."Very high vulnerability"level.（5）With regard to the factors affecting rural vulnerability,the estimation results of county poverty classification show that the increase in the level of primary industry development can significantly reduce the rural social vulnerability of non-poor counties,Class I poor counties,Class II poor counties and Class III poor counties,thus reducing the overall rural vulnerability to a certain extent,and this effect is less different among counties of different poverty levels;the increase in public expenditure per capita can reduce the ecological,social and economic vulnerability of non-poor counties,Class I poor counties,Class II poor counties and Class III poor counties.The increase in per capita public expenditure reduces the ecological,social and economic vulnerability of non-poor counties,poor class I,poor class II and poor class III counties,which in turn leads to a further reduction in overall rural vulnerability;the rapid development of urbanization increases the social vulnerability of poor class I,poor class II and poor class III counties,which in turn leads to a further increase in overall rural vulnerability.The impact of per capita construction land area on the economic vulnerability of non-poor counties and the economic vulnerability of poor class I counties is greater.The increase of biological abundance index significantly reduced rural ecological vulnerability in all four poverty-ranked counties,which in turn led to a decrease of overall rural vulnerability.