Research On Grain Production And Export Potential In Central Asia

The issue of food security is the focus of common concern worldwide,and it is also a difficult problem facing China for a long time.Although China can basically achieve self-sufficiency in food,there are still many food security risks.On the one hand,population growth,resource constraints,and structural contradictions between supply and demand affect domestic grain production.On the other hand,the increased dependence of grain on foreign countries,the concentration of import sources,and changes in the trade environment also pose greater risks to China's grain imports.Central Asia is adjacent to China and has great potential for grain production and exports.And the “Belt and Road” initiative and the regional cooperation mechanism of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO)provide cooperation opportunities for grain trade between China and Central Asia.Therefore,Central Asia can serve as a development direction for China to broaden its food supply sources and maintain domestic food security.The study of the grain production and export potential of Central Asia is an important basis for China's development of grain import trade with Central Asia.The article first systematically analyzed the current situation of China's grain import trade from two aspects of grain import scale and import structure,and clarified the current food security risks in China's grain import trade.At the same time,the present situation of grain in central Asia is studied from two aspects: production and trade.Therefore,it can analyze the feasibility of cooperation in food imports between China and Central Asia.Secondly,the GAEZ method was used to estimate the potential yield and potential cultivated land area of 9 food crops including wheat,wetland rice,corn,barley,sorghum,rye,buckwheat,oats,millet and other five Central Asian countries.Based on the actual grain production data of Central Asia,the article calculated the production potential,development potential and development potential range of various types of food crops under three kinds of assumption,including the assumption of constant production area,the assumption of constant output per unit area and the assumptions that both change,so as to grasp the central Asian region grain production capacity.Finally,taking Kazakhstan as an example to build an expanded trade gravity model,analyze the main influencing factors of Central Asia of grain export,and quantitatively study the grain export potential and type of export potential of Central Asia to China,so as to clear central Asia area to China grain export trade development space.The research results show that,first,China's grain import trade has been expanding,and primary grain products account for a large proportion of imports.Except for wheat,rice and its products,other food product import markets are highly concentrated,and there are varying degrees of grain import risks.Second,the yield per unit area of grain in central Asia is relatively low,and the area of grain harvest is far below the level at the early stage of independence,so there is still potential to increase grain output.Moreover,Kazakhstan in central Asia has a strong grain export capacity,and its cooperation with China on grain export has potential for development.Third,Central Asia has great potential for grain production.On the one hand,there is a large space for increasing the yield per unit area of grain,and on the other hand,the potential arable land area is wide.From the perspective of the country,Kazakhstan is the country with the largest grain production potential and development potential in Central Asia.In terms of food types,wheat and barley have large production and development potentials,and sorghum has a large range of development potential.Although sorghum,rye,millet,oats,and buckwheat have low potential and are concentrated in Kazakhstan,there is still room for development.Fourth,the GDP,difference in GDP per capita,geographical distance,economic distance,and whether the trading partners of the trading partners have joined the Eurasian Economic Union have a significant impact on Kazakhstan's grain exports.Among them,the GDP and economic distance of the trading parties have a positive role in promoting them.The per capita GDP difference,geographical distance,and whether or not trading partner countries join the Eurasian Economic Union have negative obstacles.At present,the type of Kazakhstan's grain export trade to China belongs to ‘Types of potential development',and there is a lot of room for development.Therefore,the development of China's grain import trade with Central Asia will help improve the current problem of the concentration of China's current grain import sources,increase the diversity of China's grain import market,reduce the risk of grain imports,and ensure China's food security.Finally,the article makes suggestions on China's import trade cooperation with Central Asia.