The Research Of The Typhoon Disaster Loss Prediction Of Distribution And Coping Strategies In China

Typhoon is a tropical swirl that mainly produce in the South China Sea and the Pacific, tropical cyclones is more active in the coastal areas of China.With the China’s economic development and large numbers of people in the coastal areas, typhoon catastrophe losses is also increasing each year.Our tools for catastrophe risk management is relatively simple, the main means of financing in pre-disaster is main insurance,it maily rely on government donations and the community of caring people after disaster financing. On the one hand, the characteristics of disaster insurance are include in homogeneity, high frequency, low loss, its price is based on mathematical statistics in the law of large numbers. However, the catastrophe risk appearing is with a low frequency, affecting a wide range, large intensity of disaster,and lack of enough data and so on, the application of the law of large numbers of such disasters has clearly failed, it obviously powerles using conventional way of insurance catastrophe risk dispersion to underwriting capacity. On the other hand, government assistance and donations of caring people will result in the subjective sense of national disaster prevention is weak,, not only weakening the personal involvement, and having difiiculty to play of market forces, but also increasing the burden of government spending.Therefore, the further strengthening of our catastrophe risk management, research and understanding of catastrophe risk catastrophe loss is necessary.Firstly,the paper analyzes the three foreign catastrophe insurance model, also introduces our country’s catastrophe insurance system, and then it is the typhoon catastrophe as object of analysis, and introduces some features and impact of the typhoon disasters;Secondly, it is example for Guangdong Province,and it anlyses the typhoon forecast losses in Guangdong prounce by selecting the relevant indicators, using BP neural network forecast economic losses to do a regression analysis, data from the 2008-2013 "Yearbook of China Meteorological Disasters", using SPSS software and Matlab toolbox analyse data, we can think the indicators have influence on economic losses; Thirdly, the economic losses of the typhoon were fat tail analysis,datas that are influcial on economic losses is from 1999-2015, with the GPD of POT model to estimate the threshold and related parameters, and using SPSS software data processing, losses in excess of the threshold portion was thick tails;Finally, combined with the loss of distribution analysis and prediction of loss, it make a few relevant recommendations from the financial markets, insurance, the establishment of a database of loss, the role of governments in catastrophe risk management and public awareness for catastrophe risk management of typhoon.