| The evaluation of agricultural development performance is especially critical for the sustainable development of agriculture.By studying the performance of agricultural development,we can grasp the input and output status in the process of agricultural development,and play a reference role in the future deployment of agricultural development resources.Different agricultural development stages and agricultural development environments require different allocations of agricultural developmment factors.Only rational allocation of production factors can ensure future agricultural development is more efficient.As a large agricultural province and a weak industrial province in China,Guangxi's performance evaluation of agricultural development is of great significance to the agricultural development of Guangxi.This study obtains an overview of the agricultural development factors in Guangxi by statistical analysis of agricultural support for agriculture,machinery investment,fertilizer input,land input and labor input.Based on the data envelopment analysis method,the input and output performance of agricultural development in Guangxi is analyzed.And correct the data of the invalid year;use the revised data sequence to establish the DGM(1,1)model of Guangxi agricultural development factor demand forecast,and make relevant predictions on the agricultural development factor demand in Guangxi in the next 3 years(2018-2020).On this basis,it proposes countermeasures and suggestions for agricultural development in Guangxi.The research results are as follows:(1)Overview of agricultural development factors in Guangxi:During the period of 2005-2017,among the agricultural development factors,the financial support for agriculture increased year by year,and the overall increase was large.The land investment decreased year by year and the decline was large.The changes in machinery and fertilizer investment were relatively small.The overall labor input is declining.Among them,the manpower input increased more from 2005 to 2010,and it fell sharply in 2011.In the following years,the manpower input has been declining.The key analysis of the financial support for agriculture:from 1998 to 2006,the amount of financial support for agriculture in Guangxi gradually increased,but compared with the total fiscal expenditure,the growth rate was slow,and the proportion of fiscal expenditure on financial expenditure decreased gradually,the lowest value.Appeared in 2006.In 2006-2017,the amount of financial support for agriculture in Guangxi increased:in volatility,but compared with other provinces,the amount is still low;due to the economic level,the amount of agricultural support for agriculture in Guangxi cannot be greatly increased in the short term.In the specific projects of financial support for agriculture,too much funds have been allocated to the administrative and management fields,and there are fewer allocations for substantive items such as pest control and protection and restoration of agricultural resources.In the analysis of the correlation between development factors and agricultural output value,fiscal support for agriculture,machinery input,and fertilizer input are highly correlated with agricultural output value.Land input and human input are moderately related to agricultural output value,indicating the selected development factors and agricultural development.There is a significant impact between them.(2)Analysis of agricultural investment and output efficiency in Guangxi:According to the performance analysis of agricultural development in Guangxi,the average technical efficiency of agricultural development in Guangxi from 2005 to 2017 was 0.994,the average value of pure technical efficiency was 0.996,and the scale efficiency value was 0.998.Except for the low performance of agricultural development in some years,the changes in other years are relatively stable and the performance value is higher.In the years when agricultural development performance was relatively low,the performance value in 2010 was the lowest.The main reason was that the pure technical efficiency value of the year was too low,and this situation always existed in subsequent years,indicating problems in agricultural technology.It has always been an important factor affecting the performance of agricultural development in Guangxi.The year in which the technical efficiency has not reached 1 is 5 years,which indicates that there are problems in the deployment of agricultural development factors in these five years.The five years of data were corrected based on the principle of data envelopment analysis.(3)Forecast of agricultural development factor demand in Guangxi:According to the DGM(1,1)model built by the improved index,the average relative error of the forecast models of capital investment,mechanical:input,fertilizer input,land input and labor input is less than 0.001,respectively.0.007,0.001,0.001,0.001.According to the gray model prediction accuracy test level,the model has high precision and can accurately predict the demand of agricultural development factors in Guangxi.Using this model to predict the demand for agricultural development factors in Guangxi in the next three years,if the agricultural development needs to achieve a state of low input,large output,and high utilization,the capital investment needs of the agricultural development factors in Guangxi should be kept at 68.539 billion yuan and 72.654 billion yuan respectively.774.684 billion yuan;machinery investment needs to be maintained at 421.949 kW,446.188 kW,and 471.82 kW,respectively;fertilizer input needs to be maintained at 2,756,960 tons,2,814,390 tons,and 2,873,100 tons,respectively.;land input needs to be maintained at 2986.664 thousand hectares,2977.626 thousand hectares,and 2968.615 thousand hectares respectively;labor input needs to be maintained at 1,042.557 million,1,391,101,and 1,379,698,000 respectively.Based on the above research,the following policy recommendations are proposed:(1)Increase the amount of financial support for agriculture,increase the stability of fiscal support for agriculture,and establish a sound mechanism for agricultural fiscal expenditure;(2)Strengthen the management of funds for supporting agriculture,balance the flow of funds in all aspects,and improve the efficiency of management and administration;(3)Effective protection and management of cultivated land;(4)Improve the promotion and application of agricultural technology,promote the efficient transformation of agricultural scientific and technological achievements,and realize agricultural modernization;(5)Referring to the forecast results,the government should plan to deploy financial support for agriculture,machinery input,fertilizer input,land input and labor input over the next three years(2018-2020). |
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