Research On The Change And Prediction Of Land Use In The Urbanization Process Of The Yangtze River Delta

Urbanization is not only a major strategy and problem in China,s modernization process,but also a powerful internal driving force for China's development.Land is an indispensable and precious resource in the process of urbanization,which provides the material basis and carrying space for the development of cities and town.With the advance of urbanization,the rapid expansion of urban space has increased the demand for land resources,and at the same time,food security problems caused by the conversion of a large amount of agricultural land into construction land have become the challenges of urbanization development.At the sane time,in the process of urbanization,unreasonable use of land and unreasonable spatial allocation of land elements are widespread,which further increases the pressure on the development of urbanization.In the context of new urbanization,how China will take the path of efficient,low?carbon,environmental protection,safe and innovative new urbanization in the future is a major problem to be solved.Based on land use concepts and dynamics,this paper studies and predicts land use changes in the urbanization process of the Yangtze river delta urban agglomeration.Firstly,this paper analyzes the status quo of location,economy,industrial structure and population in the urbanization process of this region,and analyzes the economic strength of the Yangtze river delta urban agglomeration from the dynamic and static perspectives.On the basis of making full use of the existing research results of land use change,this paper analyzes the current situation of land use change in the Yangtze river delta region by using dynamic attitude.The research results of land use change show that the structure,quantity and speed of land use change significantly,showing the growth of construction land and the decrease of agricultural land and unused land,which can be considered as the result of the occupation of agricultural land and unused land due to the extreme expansion of construction land.By identifying the factors related to urbanization process and land use change as well as urbanization and land use change in the urban agglomerations of the Yangtze river delta,this paper provides a theoretical basis for further analysis of urbanization and land use change,and provides a reference basis for building the system dynamics model(SD)of land use change in the urbanization process.On the basis of the previous research,the land use SD model was constructed,and the land use system of the Yangtze river delta urban agglomeration was divided into four subsystems:population subsystem,economic subsystem,social service subsystem and land subsystem.The land subsystem is the core of the whole model.In the land subsystem,the total amount remains unchanged.The data from 2000 to 2016 were used to conduct historical test and sensitivity analysis on the SD model of land use in the Yangtze river delta urban agglomeration.The results showed that the model was effective,stable and robust,and could be used to simulate the actual system.Through the simulation of different scenario models,the urbanization level of the Yangtze river delta urban agglomeration presents a steady rise mode.Under any circumstances,the average annual growth rate can reach 75%or even higher in 2035,and it can reach 78%?83%in 2050,which means the rapid urbanization development stage.From the perspective of different policies,it can be found that:the development of urbanization level is positively correlated with economic growth;1.5 the effect of the one?child policy on China's urbanization is more significant,while the effect of the two?child policy is smaller.Technological progress will promote the development of urbanization level;Adopting the strategy of giving priority to farmland can achieve a higher level of urbanization.From the perspective of the impact of economic growth,family planning policy,technological progress and land use mode on urbanization,it is obvious that the population planning policy has a great impact on China's urbanization,followed by technological progress,the third is the impact of economic growth,and the last is the change of land use type.In the process of dynamic change of urbanization,no matter the population concentration,economic growth and industrial transfer,or the change of land use,all play an irreplaceable role.