Humanities Drive Of Land Use Change And Its Regulation In The Yangtze River Delta Region

Land resources are an important means of production and an important foundation of national economy and social development. Land use change is a reflection under the interaction of human and nature through different driving forces. The focus on studying driving forces of land use change is an important way to understand andpredict land use change. With the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization, construction land scale expands rapidly and occupies a large body of farmland. Since China reform and opening, the Yangtze river delta region, which includes shanghai, parts of Jiangsu province (Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou, Zhenjiang, Nanjing, Yangzhou, Taizhou, Nantong) and parts of Zhejiang province (Hangzhou, Jiaxing, Huzhou, Shaoxing, Ningbo, Zhoushan, Taizhou), has been one of the national most developed areas. With the rapid development of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization, land use has shown some different characteristics from other areas in China. Based on the national survey data about land use change, the paper takes the Yangtze River delta region as an example to analyze the humanities driving forces of the land use change and its impacting mechanism. It is expected to provide important practical and theoretical significance to use land resources intensively, protect farmland, ensure food security and promote industrialization and urbanization.Therefore, the paper, based on the new social actuality and economic background and combined with regional characteristics, re-examines the land use change and its humanities driving mechanism in Yangtze River delta. The paper has innovations in term of designing the DPSR analytical framework, human driving factors analysis that based on demographic, economic and policy dimensions and land use change pressure analysis. In this paper, the main research contents and methods are as follows:Firstly, the paper presents some relevant theories about land use change. More specifically, it reviews the person-land relations theory, PSR theory, land location theory, theory of non-agriculturalization of farmland and cybernetics, put forward the understanding of these basic concepts,and design a DPSR analytical frameworkthat analysis land use change in Yangtze River delta region.Secondly, the paper analyzes the evolution of land use state in the Yangtze River Delta region from the perspective of farmland and construction land. On the basis of systematic research land use classification standards in different periods, this paper unified statistical caliber of farmland and construction land, and analysis the specific characteristics offarmland and construction land use change in Yangtze River delta region. The results found:the farmland size of the Yangtze River Delta was reduced from 4874.76 million mu to 5962.58 million mu in 1996-2012, net decrease of 18.24% in 17 years,reduction speed of farmland showed a "U"-type features in 2004 as the cutoff point. The reduction of farmland mainly accounted for reduction of irrigated land and paddy land, while dry land area have increased. The construction land size of the Yangtze River Delta was increased from 2208.24 million mu to 2208.24 million mu in 1996-2012,17 years net increase of 74.29%,annual increase 96.50 million mu.The rate of expansion of construction land showed a inverted irregular "U"-type features in 2004 as the cutoff point.Thirdly, The results show:the population, economy and policy influence the construction land expansion and farmland change in the Yangtze River delta region. The 1% rise of population leads to 1.70% rise of construct land and 1% rise of per land agriculture workers leads to 1.11% rise of farmland, for example; The 1% rise of rural net income per capita, the farmland area will reduce by 0.69%.But if urban disposable income per capita increase by 1%, the construction land quantity will increase by 0.08%. It’s seen that the internal structure of land resources tend to variate with the resident income up in the Yangtze River delta region, and China has invested weakly to agriculture irrigation, so has not provided strong support to farmland protection. As far as policy driving force, when the ratio of non-agricultural industries increase by 1%, the area of construction land will reduce by 0.67%, which may result from the fact that the Yangtze River delta region does not rely on heavily the land resources any more, in other word, the more developed the city, the more intensive the land use. As corp farming decrease 1% in agriculture production shares will leads to 0.43% reduction of farmland, so agriculture structure change is also important factor of leading to reduction of farmland.Fourthly, the paper predicts the trend of construction land and farmland use change in Yangtze River delta region. It utilizes the Grey System Theory to establish the Grey Prediction Model including per land agriculture workers, urbanization rate, rural per capita net income, rural per capita housing area, agriculture structure changing and per land grain yield to predict the future farmland changes, and the Grey Prediction Model including population density, urbanization rate,per land GDP,fixed assets investment and the proportion of non-agricultural industries to predict the future construction land changes, and examines accuracy of land use changes predict, the results show that the Grey Prediction is accurate and ensure the credibility. Forecasting results show:the next few years farmland reduction and construction land expansion in the Yangtze River Delta region will continue. According to the forecast, maintain the current pace of economic and social development, farmland and construction land use change speed, achieve the planning target of land use by 2020 will have 545.36 million mu notch pressure for farmland and 885.97 million mu expansion pressure for construction land in the Yangtze River Delta region.Fifthly, combined with the future trend of land use changes, the paper analyzes suggests perfecting the regulation pattern of land use from the following aspects:regional land use control system, means, and countermeasures. And the paper also put forward the policy suggestions facilitating the land sources sustainable use around population drive, economic drive and policy drive.