Study On The Land Use Change Based On System Dynamics From The Perspective Of Urbanization

Urbanization is the most direct driving force of land-use changes among many developing countries at present. Obviously, the extent of urbanization continues to improve, which would further aggravate the land use contradiction between city and agriculture. The contradictions between the limited supply of land resources and the increasingly prominent of social demand growth, thus the land resources will become the major bottleneck of constraining economic growth and people life's improving. Evidently, the dynamic change of land use study from urbanization perspective is not only a theoretical need, but also a realistic situation and need for the developing China.This study selected urbanization as perspective, with the land-use system, the social, economic and environmental systems integrated together, through the urbanization policy scenarios mix, the simulation analysis of land use changes is launched. First, the urbanization, economic, social, environmental, and land use subsystems of the model were conceptualized, which determined the system boundaries; then the variables (factors) and the mutual relations among elements were established; After that, the system dynamics system of software were further used to establish the flow chart, thus the land use change from the urbanization perspective model was laid on this basis. The thesis starting from the county level, with specific cases combined, using historical data system to do the dynamics model effectiveness analysis and sensitivity test. Then, the future land use change scenario simulation was operated using the tested model. Finally, the actual needs of land use planning were taken into account to the analysis and application of model's simulation results.The research would quantified urbanization policies as the urbanization policy indicators, including the normal development driver, economic multiplier of land development, urban land per capita of balance (or urban land per capita of non-balance), government of development driver (or economic driver of land development), then the logic and feedback mechanisms among the county land use, economic, social and environmental systems were constructed. The thesis took Jinyun County as a case, based on the historical validity and sensitivity analysis of the system dynamics model, using different urbanization parameters combination, taking the year 2004 as the based period, the year 2005-2020 as simulation period, thus the land use change scenarios simulation come into being. In the end, the results demonstrated that the crop land, urban land and open land of the three major categories depicts different changing trends in different urbanization perspectives. According to the simulation results of system dynamic, the non-equilibrium strategy of urbanization & government-driven model was further analyzed, of which the simulation results would be applied to optimize the land use structure and layout space program. From this, the SD model made the "scenario results" change into the "forecast simulation results" which was close to the actual circumstances of the case researched. Finally, the thesis ultimately provided important referencial materials to the new land use planning.