Analysis And Scenario Simulation Of Land Use Change Based On Plus Model

Land is one of the important elements of human social development and most social and economic activities take land as the carrier.Land plays a huge role in food security and ecological security.However,in recent years,with the rapid economic development and accelerating urbanization process,the rapid expansion of construction land,a large amount of cultivated land and other ecological land has been occupied,and the sustainable development of social economy has been destroyed,which is in contradiction with the requirements of China’s modernization and the whole society for high-quality development and green development.How to coordinate the relationship between urban development and ecological construction and cultivated land protection,scientifically predict the evolution of urban space under different land use structures in the future,and clarify the corresponding control measures are very important to promote scientific and efficient urbanization construction.This paper takes the central urban area of Kaifeng city as the research object,and based on the land use data of 2000,2010 and 2020,the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of land use in the study area from2000 to 2020 were quantitatively analyzed on the GIS platform.Logistic regression model was used to determine the relationship between relevant driving factors and local classes.Then,the PLUS model is used to predict the land use pattern of the central urban area of Kaifeng city in 2030 by setting four different scenarios of natural development,cultivated land protection,ecological protection and comprehensive development.The main conclusions are as follows.(1)During the study period,the land use structure of the study area changed relatively slowly between2000 and 2010,and relatively rapidly between 2010 and 2020,with the scale of construction land showing a positive growth trend,rising from 22.98% to 39.87% of the original scale,its expansion mainly concentrated in Longting District West,and the scale of non-construction land showing a decreasing trend and the resulting The expansion is mainly concentrated in Longting District West,where the scale of non-construction land is decreasing and the resulting ecological land area is decreasing.From the perspective of the transfer-in relationship,the main source of construction land is arable land;from the perspective of the transfer-out relationship,arable land continues to decrease,of which more than 75% of the reduced area goes to construction land.(2)The results show that GDP,distance to rural residential area,urban road,urban center and water area are the main driving forces of land use change,and construction land is positively correlated with distance to urban road and urban center,with incidence ratios of 1.067 and 1.031,respectively.Cultivated land was positively correlated with GDP and the distance to rural settlements,with occurrence ratios of 1.005 and1.031.From 2010 to 2020,the distribution pattern of new construction land in the study area is consistent with that of urban road network,indicating that urban expansion depends on urban road network.It is found that the newly added cultivated land is most likely to occur in the areas not affected by human activities,indicating that the cultivated land is mainly distributed in the areas close to rural settlements and far from urban centers.Most of the forest and grass are distributed around the urban area.(3)Under the four land use scenarios,the changes in each category are concentrated on arable land,forest and grassland and construction land,with the expansion of construction land being the most obvious,with the number of grids of construction land increasing by 72,417,33,891,71,164 and 59,657 respectively under the natural development scenario,arable land protection scenario,ecological protection scenario and comprehensive development scenario compared to 2020.The other three scenarios show a decrease in the occupation of arable land,forest and grassland,and a relatively balanced growth of construction land in each region.The distribution of each land type in the simulation remains generally unchanged,with arable land mainly concentrated in the north and southwest of Longting District and the bordering streets around each region,forest and grassland mainly in the Linghuang area and around the built-up area,and construction land mainly clustered in the urban centre.In addition,the main source of construction land under each scenario is arable land,and the regions with significant changes in the scale of construction land are mainly concentrated in Longting District.