Analysis And Simulation Prediction Of Land Use Change In Fuxian Lake Basin Based On CLUMondo Model

As the depth lake of Yunnan nine plateau lakes,Fuxian Lake,is closely related to the development of society of Yuxi.At present,the environment in Fuxian Lake Basin is well,but it is still under a greater social pressure.Because the ecological system of Fuxian Lake Basin is sensitive and fragile and land degradation,desertification is becoming more and more serious,water quality and Lake area of Fuxian Lake Basin has been a serious threat.Therefore,it is p a r t i c u l a r l y i m p o r t a n t t o a n a l y z e a n d s i m u l a t e t h e c h a n g e s i n l a n d u s e.This study used a variety of ways to analyze the land use change from 2006 to 2015 in Fuxian Lake basin.The high precision land use data is extracted from the panchromatic,multi spectral Quick Bird and WorldView-2 satellite data;Land use spatial and temporal variation characteristics and regular pattern with the help of GIS technology and social network analysis in the Fuxian Lake watershed;Logistic regression analysis was used to explore the driving factors of land use change;Using the CLUMondo model constructed different scenarios to predict the quantity and spatial distribution of land use in the future.The main research work is as follows:Based on analysis of the time and space distribution of land use of the basin from 2006 to 2015 knowing the main types of land use in the basin are Forestland,cultivated land,grassland,garden land and water.In this period,2012 as a turning point,forest land,structure,desert and bare land began to decrease after this year,and water area began to increase and cultivated land continued to decrease.According to the land use change characteristics of Fuxian Lake Basin and requirements of CLUMondo model,referring to the selection principle of the driving factors,determine the factors such as accessibility,soil,topography,and socioeconomic factors as the driving factors.Then using Logistic regression analysis to detect the collinearity of driving factors and Correlation with land use types,the results show that these driving factors has a good explanation ability to the changes land use.Multistage data test is carried out for the accuracy of model simulation,The simulation results of 2009,2012,and 2015 were evaluated using Kappa values in MCK,The results were 0.928,0.893 and 0.862,which indicated that it is reliable for CLUMondo model to simulation the land use of Fuxian Lake Basin.According to the characteristics of the model construction trends,food security and ecological restoration scenarios,and compared three kinds of simulation results with that in 2015,finding that building land and water area are basically unchanged,under the situation of food security,The increase in cultivated land,desert and bare land and artificial digging pile decrease,under the situation of ecological restoration,the garden and the grass land have increased greatly.