| Land Use reflects the most direct and close relationship between human and nature in interaction, human boost social and economic development using land, simultaneously, also cause changes in land cover, which have produced a huge impact on the ecological environment. LUCC is the core programs of International Geosphere - Biosphere Programme ( IGBP ) and the Global Environmental Change Human Dimensions Programme (IHDP),The fundamental objective of LUCC project is to promote regional understanding in land use / cover change , particularly expressed by model clearly . At present, The main concern of this area are:①The driving forces of simulation in Land Use /Cover Change;②The scale dependence of drive simulation in Land Use / Cover Change;③Forecasting the changes in the location and number for Land Use / Cover Change;④The combination of biophysical feedback in Land Use / Cover Change. The case studies of local and regional area can provide the spatial and temporal resolution required by the main variation which could explain the relationship between reason and cover . When focusing on the individual regions and districts, or narrowing the time frame, it will greatly improve our understanding of the relationship between cause and cover. Extensive case studies of regional character must be conducted to explain the land use / land cover changes in the world.This article study the land use pattern of Weishan through getting land use maps which are extracted using remote sensing images, and analyzing driving factors rasterized which have major impact on land use change .The paper predict respectively the land use pattern in 2004 and 2014,and execute multiple verification and evaluation for the results of simulation through using the Correlation coefficient obtained by logistic regression analysis and importing the demand data for land use of the target year into CLUE-S model.The main content and conclusion of this research are as follows:1 The evaluation of ecological carrying capacity in Weishan shows that the ecological footprint is 3.2341hm~2/p in 2005, ecological carrying capacity is 0.2978hm~2/p, ecological deficit per capita is 2.9363hm~2/p. Due to lack of energy consumption data in 2003 and 2004, the ecological footprint of building site and fossil fuel land are difficult to calculate, so the total ecological footprint can not be obtained. But the ecological footprint of the rest four land types and has far exceeded the land's ecological capacity.Thus, the region's carrying capacity has been difficult to meet the biological productive land area's requirements, the regional ecosystem is very fragile. Human-Land conflict keeps intensifying. Ecological environment has been under increasing pressure, the self-adjustment ability of ecological environment is getting worse. Therefore, before using model simulations of future land use change, the study must set up ecological protection scenarios, basis the reasonable land demand to simulation, then can effectively alleviate the contradiction in regional development and achieve sustainable development.2 Adopting the 300m, 500m grid date in 1995 to simulation of land use pattern in 2004, and compared to the actual land use in 2004.In the case of 300×300m grid, get the correct simulation of the grid number is 15679, the total number is 18,000,the ratio is 80%, so Po = 0.8710. Kappa index was calculated to 0.8452. In the case of 500×500m grid, get the correct simulation of the grid number is 5438, the total number is 6475,the ratio is 83.98%, so Po = 0.8710. Kappa index was calculated to 0.8078. Above two results are both satisfactory, indicating that CLUE-S model can simulated Weishan land use / land cover change. Meanwhile, the grid size increases reduce the simulation accuracy in certain extent.3 Take 2004 as the initial data to simulate the land use pattern under four demand scenarios in 2014, the ROC index of Water, land, construction land, forest land, garden plot and unused land are 0.966,0.891,0.985,0.866,0.922,0.989, among these, the unused land simulation accuracy largest because of it change least.The results show that under the four scenarios of land patterns are quite different in space, the specific number of the major changes are as follows: The water area of the first three decreased slightly, The natural growth scenarios and the performance of economic development scenarios show the reduction of arable land, and the increase of construction land, the latter of which are focused on building construction sites. Optimization scenarios of land construction land area decreased by focusing on the construction to increase the cultivated area, of which forest land and garden land also have a slight increase to achieve structural optimization. Ecological protection scenario: significant increase in water and forest land, farmland and construction sites are both reduced, so the performance shows the arable land and construction land are converted into the water and forest land, of which unused land and the garden land changed have a small change.
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