Simulation And Prediction Of Land Use Change Based On CLUMondo Model

Human beings use land resources while changing the way of land use,and at the same time affect the changes of the regional environment,so it is very important to study land use/cover changes.The Qinling Mountains are the dividing line between my country's north and south.It has important ecological functions in terms of climate regulation,soil and water conservation,and biodiversity.Therefore,studying land use/cover changes in the Qinling Mountains and exploring the land use mechanism in the Qinling Mountains is important for maintaining ecological safety.The barrier is of great significance to promote the harmonious coexistence of man and nature,promote the construction of ecological civilization,and achieve sustainable economic and social development.Hanbin District is a representative city in the Qinling Mountains.By exploring the internal mechanism of land evolution in the region,on the one hand,government decision-makers can handle the protection of the ecological environment of the Qinling Mountains and achieve sustainable development on the basis of ensuring the urban development process;On the other hand,enrich the case studies of land use/cover change in the Qinling Mountains,and provide ideas for solving the contradiction between land supply and demand for urban development in the Qinling Mountains.This paper interprets the land use data of Hanbin District in 2010,2015,and 2020 based on remote sensing images,and analyzes the regional evolution law of Hanbin District from2010 to 2020.Logistic regression analysis was performed on the selected driving factors,and the CLUMondo model was used to simulate the 2020 land use data in Hanbin District.Three different scenarios were set up to simulate the future spatial pattern of land use in Hanbin District.The main research contents and results are as follows:(1)According to the analysis of the land use evolution law of Hanbin District based on the third-phase land use data,it is concluded that the dynamic degree of land use conversion in Hanbin District from 2010 to 2015 and 2015 to 2020 is 3.93% and 3.94%,respectively.It shows that the land use changes in Hanbin District are quite drastic,and the main types of changes are construction land,arable land and grassland.(2)According to the actual land use status and natural conditions and socio-economic conditions of Hanbin District,12 driving factors are selected.Under five spatial scales,logistic regression analysis was used to test,and the 100m×100m scale was determined to be the best simulation scale for Hanbin District through the AUC value.(3)The accuracy test of the land use spatial pattern of Hanbin District in 2020 simulated by CLUMondo model shows that the simulation accuracy is relatively high.The Kappa coefficient is 0.871 and the grid accuracy rate is 91.72%,indicating that CLUMondo model can better express Hanbin.The law and internal mechanism of land use evolution in the district.(4)According to the particularity of land use types in Qinling Mountains,three scenarios of natural growth,ecological protection and rapid urban expansion were set up to simulate the spatial pattern of land use in Hanbin District in 2035,and Hanbin District in 2035 The land use change situation is analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively in time,quantity and space,which provides a certain reference value for the government to make land use planning decisions and land structure adjustments.