Study On The Simulation And Prediction Of Land Use Spatiotemporal Change Based On GIS

Under the background of global ecological environment change,land use/cover change(LUCC)research has become a hotspot of global research.Land use change simulation is an important part of LUCC research.Ansai District is a typical city on the Loess Plateau,with fragile ecological environment and unreasonable land use.With the contradiction between supply and demand becoming more and more serious,spatial simulation and analysis of land use change in Ansai District will help management departments better understand and grasp the spatial and temporal law of land use,and promote the sustainable use of land and the sustainable development of social economy.This paper takes Ansai District as the research object,collates the land change database from2011 to 2017,and extracts six land use types: cultivated land,garden land,woodland,grassland,construction land and area.The characteristics of land use change in Ansai District are analyzed from three aspects: land use quantity change,time series change and spatial change.Nine natural driving factors and two socioeconomic driving factors were selected to analyze the driving factors of land use change in Ansai District by logistic regression analysis.The grey forecasting model GM(1,1)is used to calculate the land demand in Ansai District.The CLUE-S model was used to simulate the spatial distribution of land use in Ansai District in 2017.The spatial distribution pattern of land use in Ansai District in 2025 was predicted under four scenarios: natural development,cultivated land protection,ecological security and urban expansion.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)The land use dynamic change and its evolution characteristics in Ansai area from 2011 to2017 are studied and analyzed.By using the land use dynamic degree,fractal dimension of land use type and land transfer matrix,it is concluded that the main land types in Ansai area are agricultural land,and the absolute proportion of cultivated land,garden land,forest land and grassland is occupied.The changes of cultivated land,forest land and construction land are obvious.Obviously,and the spatial distribution pattern is not stable.(2)the dynamic change of land use and its evolution characteristics in the area from 2011 to2017 were studied and analyzed.By using the dynamic degree of land use,the fractal dimension of land use types and the land transfer matrix,the land types in the area were mainly agricultural land,and the arable land,woodland,woodland and grassland occupied the absolute proportion,and the cultivated land,woodland and construction land changed obviously.Obviously,and the spatial distribution pattern is not stable.(2)select the driving factors of land use change in the area,and build two Logistic regression analysis models in different regions.By analyzing the relationship between the local and driving factors,we can confirm the validity of the regression analysis model.(3)simulate the spatial distribution of land use in 2017 based on the spatial distribution data of land use in An Sai District in 2011.By comparing the actual data of 2017 in Ansai District,the simulation accuracy is calculated.The Kappa coefficient is 0.86 and the simulation results are good.Therefore,the CLUE-S model can be used to simulate the distribution of land use in An Sai District in 2025.(4)land use spatial distribution data in 2017 were used to predict the spatial distribution of land use in the area under natural development scenarios,farmland protection scenarios,ecological security scenarios and urban expansion scenarios in 2025.