Scenario Simulation Of Land Use Change In Port City Based On C4.5-CA

With the development of economy and society and the continuous improvement of urbanization level,land,as an important resource for human being to engage in economic and social activities,is becoming increasingly scarce,fixed and irreplaceable.Under the stimulation of many factors such as population agglomeration,urbanization construction,industrial development,and trade acceleration,the port city,which carries the two major functional attributes of city and port and has more complex land use types,has more scarce land resources,more significant changes in land use and cover,and more prominent contradictions in land use,especially in land space.Considering a variety of driving factors of port city development,mining the conversion rules of port city land use,predicting the future trend of port city land use change,in order to provide suggestions for alleviating the contradiction of port city land development,and provide reference for the scientific planning of port city land use.Based on the historical development data of land use,this paper uses C4.5 decision tree method to deeply mine the conversion rules among different land types in port cities.On this basis,the development scenario of port city is set,the future land demand is predicted,and the CA cellular automata function is used to realize the scenario simulation and land pattern evolution of port city land use.This study is based on RS and GIS Based on the analysis of remote sensing image,considering the complexity of function and the particularity of space of port city,this paper puts forward the driving factors that affect the development of port city,analyzes and tests them by using logistic method and ROC curve,constructs C4.5-CA port city land use evolution model,and realizes the mining of land use transformation rules in the research area by using C4.5 decision tree.Based on the two scenarios of city oriented and port oriented,the land use demand is predicted,and the model parameters are matched and set,and the evolution of land use change scenarios in the target area is simulated by cellular automata.Taking the west coast area of Jiaozhou Bay in Qingdao as the research object,this paper makes an example analysis.The results show that C4.5-CA model can be applied to the spatial land use evolution of the port city in the west coast of Jiaozhou Bay,Qingdao.The future development of urban land is mainly to the southwest,with the emphasis on the sea side expansion;the expansion direction of port and its supporting land is mainly to the northwest.The results of this study can provide theoretical reference for shoreline development and urban land use issues involved in port construction and development,help to alleviate the land structural contradictions of port cities,and provide scientific reference and guidance for coordinated and orderly development of port city.