Analysis Of Land Use Change And Dynamic Simulation In Yan'an Based On CLUE-S Model And GIS

Because of serious soil erosion and bad weather,the Loess Plateau has fragmented loess landform of ravines and gullies.The man-land relationship in this region is prominent,the ecological environment is fragile and the land use change is affected by people,nature and society.Therefore,the study of land use change can reveal the evolution pattern of land-use change,so as to be good for understanding and grasping the development trend of land use dynamic change and it is of great significance to maintain the sustainable use of land resources.In this paper Yan'an City in Shaanxi Province is taken as the study area with typical loess landform characteristics.Firstly,land use analysis method or land use change model are used to analyze its land use change pattern in the past 25 years by land use data of 1990,2000,2010,2015,and the result of land use change analysis is obtained.Then,the driving mechanism of land use change in this area is studied by logistic regression model,obtaining the regression equation of land use types and driving factors.The land use in 2015 is simuulated by CLUE-S model and the accuracy of the simulation results is tested by Kappa index and other methods.On this basis,multi-scenario simulation analysis is conducted based on the data of land use and land cover in 2015.The spatial distribution maps of land use under different sccnarios in 2030 are obtained.The results show that:(1)The land-use types has significantly changed from 2000 to 2010.The farmland area has significantly reduction,but the forestland area has increased greatly and theconstruction land area has increased significantly.The reason is the implementation of Grain for Green Program and the development of urbanization.In 1990-2000 and 2010-201 5,the land-use change is relaively small,because these two periods are in the early and late stages of Grain for Green Program.During the whole period of 1990-2015,land use is in the time of adjustment,but the overall situation remains unchanged.(2)People,natural environment and social environment have a great influence on land use change in Yan'an City.Natural environmental factors,geographical location factors and socio-economic factors drive the change of land use together,of which socio-economic factors have a greater impact on the change of land use types.(3)The land use simulation applying CLUE-S model in 2015 has a high accuracy and Kappa index is 98.94%,more than 75%.Compared with real land use data,it has a high consistency and recognition and the overall simulation result is better.(4)Through the multi-scenario simulation analysis of land use change,we can see that land use change in Yan'an City will be relatively stable in the next 15 years with the current development trend of land use change and the overall land use pattern will remain unchanged.