Research On The Development Of China Housing Market Based On System Dynamics

As the most proportion and marketing extent of realty industry, housing industry with healthy development has been the most important content of city programming. But at present there are still many problems such as housing supply is not agree with housing demand, empty ratio of built housing is too high, market order is disordered, many people can not afford the house etc. The purpose of this paper is to do quantitative research on China's domestic housing market based on system dynamics theory and to build the model of system dynamics. The paper takes Shanghai housing market as an example to do empirical analysis. The paper can provide simulative fluctuations trend of residential development in the future so that the housing developers and the government can grasp the direction and opportunity of investment better and make the right investment decisions.In accordance with the principles of modeling, the paper make sure that our housing market will regarded as the research object firstly. Then do an analysis of systemic characteristic. The whole system is divided into four subsystems to have research done each in terms of factor reduction. Later establish the structure of whole system and draw the chart of system causality. Then set the main variables and their types, and draw the flow chart of every subsystem respectively, build dynamic equations and set model parameters. Then make simulation forecast of Shanghai housing market through the software of system dynamic. According to the system dynamics model made, set the initial state of system to simulate. Make latter simulation of the data from the year 2004 to 2005 using the historical data from 1995 to 2003. Then make a check and comparison through the simulative result, discuss the confidence tolerance of the model. And make a simulation of Shanghai housing market from the year 2006 to 2010.Finally make a forecast of future development trend of Shanghai housing market in according to the output simulative result. Make macro policy recommendations with pertinence in order to provide theory support of policy research and decision-making for relevant departments. At the same time, The paper also raises some development strategies of Shanghai housing market based on the policy recommendations to maintain a good situation which the supply and demand of housing market are balanced, the structure is reasonable, and effectively control the trend of soaring price.