| The raising of “the Belt and Road” strategy indicates that it will be a overall tactic of China's allround opening to the outside in quite a long period,and be the key of promoting supply-side structural reform,improving the status of international division of labor.There are more than 70 percent of the 64 countries along “the Belt and Road” are developing countries,and agroforestry is the traditional basic industry rooted in the heart of China and “the Belt and Road” countries.The article uses the micro data in 2009~2015 of Zhejiang province forestry products export scale from the Chinese customs information network,which is used to study on the duration of “the Belt and Road” for agroforestry products in Zhejiang province.Besides,the influence factors of the duration of the export of agroforestry products are analyzed by using Cloglog discrete time survival analysis model,and making further robustness test by using Probit and Logit model.The results as follows:(1)From 2009 to 2015,it finds that the export volume of “the Belt and Road” in Zhejiang agroforestry products increases steadily,and forest products increases better than agricultural products.The export products and export markets of Zhejiang agroforestry products are concentrated.In addition,the utilization rate of export trade is generally low,and the number of products with zero value is high.(2)From 2009 to 2015,it finds that the utilization rate of the export trade relations between Zhejiang province and the "area" is low and remains only 2.08 years in average.In addition,the risk of trade relations function showed obvious negative time dependence.Whats more,the survival trade relations contributes greatly to the growth of trade.(3)From 2009 to 2015,it finds that the economic level,exchange rate,identification of FTA agreement,common language,trade freedom have positive impacts on the duration of trade,and border with China,geographical distance are not conducive to the continuation of trade relations.Based on the above studies,the following suggestions are made: Firstly,improving agroforestry innovation capacity and focusing on developing new products;Secondly,consolidating traditional markets and focusing on developing emerging markets;Thirdly,improving the construction of the enterprise credit rating system and improving the credit rating of enterprises;Fourth,strengthen marketoriented reform of the RMB exchange rate and striving to internationalize the RMB;Fifth,improving product quality and promoting supply-side structural reform of agroforestry;Finally,strengthen international cooperation,and striving to maintain and extend existing trade relations. |
